GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024

Jan 11, 2024

The podcast explores the top risks of 2024 including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, emerging AI technologies, and the upcoming US elections. It discusses the crisis of democracy in the United States, specific conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas, and the impact of politics on global risks. The top risks of 2024 include high inflation, China's slowing economy, alliance between North Korea, Iran, and Russia, governance of artificial intelligence, partitioning of Ukraine, Middle East conflict, and conflict within the United States. The podcast also discusses the risks and regulations of AI, the implications of the US election, and the importance of taking action in the crisis environment.

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Quick takeaways

The US election poses a major risk due to deep polarization and division within the country, with the potential for a contested outcome and the undermining of democratic norms.

The influence of Donald Trump within the Republican Party and his refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election create a crisis of confidence in American democracy, risking the erosion of trust in democratic institutions and the loss of faith in the electoral process.

The US election and its potential outcome have implications for global alliances and geopolitics, as it can shape American foreign policy and commitment to international cooperation, with the risk of unsettling traditional alliances and increasing tensions with countries like Russia and China.

Deep dives

Risk of Polarization in the US Election

The US election poses a major risk due to the deep polarization and division within the country. The outcome of the election has implications not only for domestic politics but also for the international stage. Donald Trump's potential candidacy as the Republican nominee raises concerns, as he has a history of challenging the legitimacy of the democratic process and undermining democratic norms. The risk of a contested outcome and the potential for Trump to delegitimize the election and sow further division is a significant concern.

Introduction

2min

The Unprecedented Danger of 2024

2min

Exploring the Central Theme of Conflict and Revealing the Top Risks

2min

The Impact of Politics on Global Risks

2min

Top Global Risks for 2024

19min

Ungoverned AI: Risks and Regulations

14min

The Risks of the US Election

18min

Taking Action in the Crisis Environment of 2024

3min

In a special edition of the GZERO podcast, we're diving into our expectations for the topsy-turvy year ahead. The war in Ukraine is heading into a stalemate and possible partition. Israel's invasion of Gaza has amplified region-wide tensions that threaten to spill over into an even wider, even more disastrous, even ghastlier conflict. And in the United States, the presidential election threatens to rip apart the feeble tendrils holding together American democracy. All those trends and more topped Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks project for 2024, which takes the view from 30,000 feet to summarize the most dangerous and looming unknowns in the coming year. Everything from out-of-control AI to China's slow-rolling economy made this year's list. GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan to work through their list of Top Risks for 2024 alongside Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of "The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021"; Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. The big throughline this year? Events spiral out of control even against the wishes of major players. Whether it's possible escalation between Israel and Iranian proxies, Chinese retaliation to the result of the Taiwanese election, or central banks finding themselves squeezed into a corner by persistent inflation, the sheer number of moving parts presents a risk in and of itself. Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, recorded live on January 8.

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GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Risk of Polarization in the US Election

The Risks of Delegitimizing American Democracy

Impact on Global Alliances and Geopolitics

Mitigating Risk from Biden's Age and Policy Impact

Global Implications of US Election

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts