Macro Voices MacroVoices #480 Louis-Vincent Gave: What Comes Next After The Trade War Dust Settles
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May 15, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder of GaveCal, shares his expertise on global macroeconomics. He delves into the implications of Trump tariffs and their effects on markets, particularly regarding China and precious metals. The conversation highlights evolving investment strategies, shifting from gold to energy resources like uranium. Gave also examines the complexities of U.S.-China trade negotiations and reveals the potential impacts of geopolitical changes and commodities on future economic trends.
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Tariff Impact and Inflation
- The U.S.-China tariffs will likely settle around 10% for most goods, with China facing 25-40% tariffs.
- This scenario is inflationary for the U.S. and may cause supply chain adjustments.
Capital Flows Shape Global Markets
- The U.S. may avoid recession partly due to fiscal stimulus, but capital is flowing home globally, reducing U.S. market dominance.
- Other regions like Latin America, Asia, and Europe are experiencing bull markets, while the U.S. market largely stagnates.
US Market Losing Exceptionalism
- The U.S. lost its exceptional market appeal due to no new major innovation after AI, trade uncertainty, and policy volatility.
- A revival depends on a significant new innovation or crises in Europe or China to restore U.S. market dominance.