Monetary Matters with Jack Farley cover image

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Harley Bassman: Bonds Are Fully Cooked Without an Imminent Recession

Oct 1, 2024
Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, dives into the intricacies of the bond market. He argues that bonds are 'fully cooked' without a recession on the horizon. Bassman shares his top trading strategies, emphasizing selling interest rate volatility and leveraging agency MBS. He discusses navigating mortgage bonds, the impact of Fed policies, and the importance of risk management in credit markets. Listeners gain insights into the dynamics of interest rates and the essential role of diversification in investment strategies.
01:13:53

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Harley Bassman emphasizes that without an imminent recession, the bond market is fully cooked, necessitating strategic trading adjustments.
  • Selling interest rate volatility, particularly through current coupon MBS and callable bonds, offers better value amid high implied volatility.

Deep dives

Interest Rate Perspectives and Opportunities

The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has led to reflections on the current landscape of interest rates and opportunities in the market. The back end of the yield curve, particularly the 10-year and 30-year rates, is perceived to be low and nearing its lower limit. This situation invites strategies such as selling interest rate volatility through instruments like current coupon mortgages and callable bonds, which are said to present better value due to high implied volatility versus realized volatility. With forward rates expected to hold steady, this market action could lead to more adjustments in trading strategies focused on long-duration securities.

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