Global Elections Permeate Sovereign Bond Markets: Macro Matters
Jul 11, 2024
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Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey and Huw Worthington discuss the impact of global elections on bond markets. They delve into US congressional partisanship, French and UK elections' volatility, and the implications of the US Presidential election on trade and geopolitics.
Global elections impact sovereign bond markets with increased volatility and widening spreads.
Rise of right-wing populism in Europe challenges EU governance and fiscal policies, signaling a less EU-friendly political landscape.
Deep dives
Implications of the French Election on Bond Spreads
The recent elections in France saw unexpected results with Marine Le Pen's party gaining momentum. Despite concerns about the populist right gaining power, a coalition effectively pushed her party into third place. This political shift has affected French bond spreads, causing them to widen. The market is now adjusting to a new trading range, reflecting the uncertain political landscape.
Rise of Right-Wing Populism in European Politics
The podcast discusses the trend of right-wing populism gaining ground in European politics. Countries like Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain are witnessing a rise in right-wing influence. This shift poses challenges to EU governance and fiscal policies, signaling a less EU-friendly political landscape.
Impact of US Political Polarization on Fiscal Outlook
The episode compares political polarization in the US to the European political landscape, highlighting concerns about fiscal restraint. With differences between parties on fiscal policies, there is a growing worry about government debt levels and potential inflationary effects. The US political environment contrasts with the unique financial dynamics of European countries, posing challenges for stability and bond yields.
US congressional partisanship is at it’s highest level ever and there’s no fiscal restraint on either side of the aisle, says Macro Matters host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey. He joined BI’s chief European rate strategist Huw Worthington to discuss the implications of global elections across sovereign debt markets. The pair talk about recent volatility spurred by French and UK elections and their impact on relative value across markets. They also dissect the outcomes of the November US Presidential election and the implications of shifting trade and geopolitical stances on the economy.
Macro Matters is part of the BI FICC Focus pod cast series.
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