China’s Perspective on the Current Middle East Crises: A Conversation with Mr. Tuvia Gering
Mar 1, 2024
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Exploring China's perspective on the Israel-Hamas conflict and Red Sea tensions, discussing Chinese blame on the US, lack of action in response, and potential for broader escalation. Mr. Tuvia Gering analyzes China's strategy, economic interests, and reluctance to work with the United States in the Middle East crises.
China's response to the Middle East crises is shaped by a desire to challenge the Western-led world order through rhetoric over action.
The economic ramifications of the Red Sea crises, particularly Houthi attacks, impact Chinese trade routes and energy security, causing concerns for the Belt and Road Initiative.
Chinese public opinion on the Israel-Hamas conflict largely aligns with official narratives, with dissent limited to elite discussions and academics.
Deep dives
China's Involvement and Influence in the Israel-Hamas Conflict
China's position and influence in the Middle East, specifically regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict and Red Sea Houthis attacks, lack clear mediation efforts and mainly echo international consensus. Despite concerns about regional stability and economic interests, China's approach remains reactive rather than proactive, focusing on rhetoric over action.
Impact on Chinese Shipping and Economic Interests
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have caused a notable increase in shipping container leasing rates impacting Chinese trade routes. China's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy sources raises economic concerns, with potential disruptions affecting trade and investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. The conflict's economic impacts remain a key factor in China's response.
Chinese Domestic Opinion and Elite Positioning
Chinese public opinion on the Israel-Hamas conflict reflects official narratives, mirroring responses to the conflict in Ukraine. While voices critical of Hamas terrorism exist, most conform to state perspectives, cautioning against openly deviating. Elite discussions and academics show varied sentiments, with limited dissent observed.
Xi Jinping's Approach and Limited Engagement
Xi Jinping's minimal engagement with the Israel-Hamas conflict signals a focus on domestic challenges and strategic interests elsewhere. Absence of direct involvement and prioritization of regional stability indicate a hands-off approach, aligning with China's cautious foreign policy strategy. China's response suggests a preference for indirect influence and maintenance of strategic balance.
Russia-China Dynamics and Strategic Alignment
China and Russia exhibit a strategic alignment in echoing narratives and shared interests in regional stability, albeit with nuanced differences. While both nations collaborate strategically, China maintains cautious military engagements compared to Russia. The alignment reflects a balance between shared narratives and strategic calculations.
China's Broader Foreign Policy Strategy
China's response to the Middle East crisis underscores its evolving foreign policy strategy focused on strategic competition and rejuvenation narratives. Viewing the region as a battleground for major powers, China's strategy prioritizes strategic interests over conflict resolution. The dire outlook suggests limited avenues for collaboration with the US, emphasizing diverging interests and strategic trajectories.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Tuvia Gering joins us to discuss China’s strategy in the context of the Israel-Hamas war and the Red Sea crisis. He dissects the different views within China and the role China has played in both. He shares that China blames the United States for the war and that the PRC response to the region is informed by China’s desire to push back against the Western-led world order. Mr. Gering also discusses the politics behind the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the economic ramifications that have followed. Overall, China’s responses to both crises have been high on rhetoric and low on action. Finally, Mr. Gering warns of the possibility of broader escalation in the Middle east and the low likelihood of Chinese willingness to work with the United States.
Tuvia Gering is a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, a researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a Tikvah Fund’s Krauthammer fellow based in Jerusalem and specializing in Chinese security and foreign policy. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israeli Chinese Media Center.
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