Champion Iron (TSX:CIA) Delivers Record Quarter - Ultra-High-Grade Start-Up & Cash Flow Boom in 2026

Interview with David Cataford, CEO of Champion Iron Ltd.

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/g-mining-ventures-tsxgmin-champion-iron-tsxcia-playbook-for-success-7198

Recording date: 24th November 2025

Champion Iron stands at a compelling inflection point for investors seeking exposure to steel industry decarbonisation. After seven years and over $2 billion of capital investment, the Canadian iron ore producer is weeks away from completing its transformation into one of the world's premier ultra-high-grade concentrate suppliers, with the major expenditure cycle ending December 2025 and material free cash flow generation beginning 2026.

The company just delivered its strongest quarterly performance in two years, generating approximately $175 million EBITDA with record sales of 4 million tonnes. This operational momentum comes as Champion works through a 3-million-tonne stockpile of premium 66.2% concentrate that provides near-term cash generation visibility as inventory converts to sales over coming quarters. Management owns over 10% of the business, ensuring strong alignment with shareholder interests.

Champion's most significant catalyst arrives with December 2025 completion of its $500 million DR Pellet Feed project, over 80% complete with remaining work focused on piping and electrical systems. This upgrade transitions half of production – approximately 7-12 million tonnes annually – to up to 69% iron ore concentrate, positioning Champion amongst the world's highest-grade producers with first commercial shipments expected early 2026.

The strategic rationale extends beyond grade premiums. Current production ships approximately 9 million tonnes annually to China, incurring freight costs of $23-25 per tonne whilst competing against proximate Australian and Brazilian suppliers. The DR Pellet Feed material targets North Africa, Middle East, and European customers where Champion's Canadian location becomes proximity advantage, reducing freight costs whilst commanding premiums for material essential to Direct Reduction Iron processes central to steel decarbonisation.

Champion's ore stability provides critical competitive advantage. The company maintains an unblemished on-specification delivery record, enabling long-term contracts with sophisticated buyers who cannot tolerate specification risk in DRI feedstock. Whilst premiums for high-grade material currently sit at historical lows, Champion has witnessed premiums reaching $45 per tonne during previous periods of tight supply, suggesting significant upside potential as steel industry decarbonisation accelerates.

The valuation disconnect presents compelling opportunity. Champion trades at market capitalisation under $2 billion against over $6 billion in replacement costs – approximately 70% discount to asset replication value. This gap exists despite management's unblemished track record of delivering three consecutive major projects on time and on budget since 2017. Management is now evaluating share buybacks as value-creating strategy given this substantial discount.

Iron ore pricing resilience stems from Chinese domestic production economics. China produces over 450 million tonnes at relatively high cost, creating natural price support as high-cost producers curtail output when prices decline. This dynamic has provided consistent support around $100 per tonne despite analyst forecasts of lower pricing since 2015.

Beyond current operations, Champion secured attractive growth optionality through its Kami project – potential 9-million-tonne-per-year development with 49% sold to Nippon Steel and Sojitz. Partner equity contributions fund several years of permitting and feasibility work without requiring Champion shareholder capital, with construction decision possible in 2027.

With capital expenditure cycle ending December 2025, Champion maintains four-year track record of semi-annual dividend payments (10 cents per share) whilst evaluating enhanced returns as free cash flow materialises. Multiple value drivers converge through 2026: working capital release, cost improvements, premium product sales, and enhanced capital returns at compelling valuation for investors believing in iron ore price stability and steel decarbonisation trends.

View Champion Iron's company profile: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/champion-iron-limited

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