Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford That Turn To Pascagoula
Jul 10, 2020
New Orleans faces a precarious reality when it comes to hurricane preparedness. Warnings often fall on deaf ears, leading to chaotic evacuation efforts. Personal stories reveal tragic misjudgments during crises, highlighting our complex decision-making in the face of danger. The conversation critiques past failures, such as those seen in Hurricane Katrina, urging better infrastructure and readiness for future threats. Additionally, it explores the nuances of memory and truth through a notable event in Pascagoula, encouraging reflection on how we perceive our experiences.
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Predictable Surprises
- We often fail to act on clear risks, even when they're predictable.
- This inaction stems not from unpredictability itself, but our inability to respond effectively.
Harvard Pandemic Exercise
- Michael Watkins' 2002 pandemic response exercise at Harvard eerily predicted the COVID-19 outbreak.
- The scenario included students falling ill after a trip to Africa, rumors spreading, and classes moving online.
Unheeded Warnings
- Bill Gates' 2015 TED Talk warned of a deadly virus outbreak, viewed by 2.5 million before COVID-19.
- Official bodies like the WHO also issued warnings, highlighting the predictability of such events.
