New Orleans faces a precarious reality when it comes to hurricane preparedness. Warnings often fall on deaf ears, leading to chaotic evacuation efforts. Personal stories reveal tragic misjudgments during crises, highlighting our complex decision-making in the face of danger. The conversation critiques past failures, such as those seen in Hurricane Katrina, urging better infrastructure and readiness for future threats. Additionally, it explores the nuances of memory and truth through a notable event in Pascagoula, encouraging reflection on how we perceive our experiences.
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insights INSIGHT
Predictable Surprises
We often fail to act on clear risks, even when they're predictable.
This inaction stems not from unpredictability itself, but our inability to respond effectively.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Harvard Pandemic Exercise
Michael Watkins' 2002 pandemic response exercise at Harvard eerily predicted the COVID-19 outbreak.
The scenario included students falling ill after a trip to Africa, rumors spreading, and classes moving online.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Unheeded Warnings
Bill Gates' 2015 TED Talk warned of a deadly virus outbreak, viewed by 2.5 million before COVID-19.
Official bodies like the WHO also issued warnings, highlighting the predictability of such events.
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In 'The Unthinkable', Amanda Ripley delves into the human responses to some of history’s most epic disasters, from the explosion of the Mont Blanc munitions ship in 1917 to the World Trade Center attacks on September 11, 2001. She consults leading brain scientists, trauma psychologists, and other disaster experts to understand the psychological and neurological aspects of survival. The book outlines the 'survival arc' of denial, deliberation, and decision, and provides practical advice on increasing one’s chances of survival in disaster scenarios. It also explores themes such as crowd psychology, the brain’s fear circuits, and the role of heroism and resilience in the face of disaster.
Willful blindness
Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril
Margaret Heffernan
In 'Willful Blindness', Margaret Heffernan delves into the psychology behind why people and institutions often choose to ignore or overlook evident, harmful information or truths. The book uses real-world examples such as the Enron scandal, the Catholic Church sexual abuse cases, and the BP oil spill to explain how willful blindness develops and its consequences. Heffernan discusses various factors contributing to this phenomenon, including cognitive dissonance, obedience to authority, love, fear, and the need for social acceptance. She argues that while willful blindness is a natural human tendency, it is possible to overcome it through intention and attention, and by challenging biases and encouraging debate.
The Ostrich Paradox
Robert Meyer
Howard Kunreuther
The Ostrich Paradox addresses the question of why humans consistently fail to prepare for disastrous risks despite having the ability to foresee them. The book identifies six cognitive biases—Myopia Bias, Amnesia Bias, Optimism Bias, Inertia Bias, Simplification Bias, and Herding Bias—that hinder disaster preparedness. It proposes a Behavioral Risk Audit as a systematic approach to improve preparedness by recognizing and addressing these biases.
Predictable Surprises
The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them
Michael Watkins
Max Bazerman
Predictable Surprises by Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins delves into the phenomenon of disasters that could have been anticipated but were not, due to cognitive, organizational, and political biases. The book provides a framework for recognizing and preventing these predictable surprises, highlighting six danger signals and outlining steps for proactive leadership.
For years, people had warned that New Orleans was vulnerable - but when a hurricane came close to destroying the city, the reaction was muted. Some people took the near miss as a warning - others, as confirmation that there was nothing to worry about.
So why do we struggle to prepare for disasters? And why don't we draw the obvious lessons from clear warnings?
Sources for this episode include Amanda Ripley's The Unthinkable,The Ostrich Paradox by Howard Kunreuther and Robert Meyer, Margaret Heffernan's Willful Blindness, and Predictable Surprises by Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins. For a full list of sources see http://timharford.com/
Tim's latest books 'Fifty Inventions That Shaped The Modern Economy' and 'The Next Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy' are available now.
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford 
