The Rachman Review Too soon to celebrate peace between Iran and Israel?
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Jun 24, 2025 Gideon discusses fragile peace dynamics with Vali Nasr, a Middle East expert and author, who offers deep insights into Iran's long-term strategies. They dive into the complexities of the recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, questioning if it's a genuine turn toward peace or simply a pause in hostilities. Nasr elaborates on Iran's vulnerabilities due to domestic unrest and external pressures, while exploring the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Gulf. Their conversation sheds light on the crucial role of U.S. involvement in preventing future conflicts.
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Uneven Ceasefire Commitment
- The Iran-US part of the ceasefire seems more stable than the Israel-US part.
- Israel is less eager to stop but both sides see benefit in halting escalation for now.
Partial Nuclear Program Damage
- Israel has not fully destroyed Iran's nuclear program but has greatly damaged it.
- Both sides can claim enough success to justify the ceasefire to their populations.
War Is A Strategic Pause
- Israel achieved spectacular successes but Iran's military was resilient and did not collapse.
- The war is a pause in hostility rather than a reordering moment in the Middle East.