How should I be positioned? with Ken Caplan (Blackstone) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Oct 9, 2024
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Ken Caplan, Global Co-Chief Investment Officer at Blackstone, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, dive into the shifting landscape of investment strategies. They dissect the U.S. economy's resilience amidst challenges in consumer spending. The duo discusses promising sectors like logistics and rental housing, and the growing significance of data centers in AI investments. They also explore global opportunities, particularly the optimistic outlook for India's economy and the evolving dynamics across Europe and Asia.
The U.S. economy shows resilience with stable revenue growth in private equity and low credit default rates despite some sector challenges.
Investments in data centers and AI infrastructure are prioritized due to skyrocketing demand, highlighting strategic opportunities in a transforming market.
Deep dives
Resilience in the U.S. Economy
The current state of the U.S. economy is characterized by resilience despite signs of slowing growth. Revenue growth in various private equity portfolio companies remains stable, with many reporting mid-single-digit increases. Additionally, low default rates in the credit industry signal overall economic strength, particularly in sectors like digital infrastructure and IT spending. However, certain segments, including consumer markets and hospitality, are experiencing challenges, indicating a nuanced economic landscape.
Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market exhibits signs of moderation, with job openings decreasing and hiring slowing down, yet layoffs remain notably low. While the unemployment rate hovers around 4%, organizations appear hesitant to hire aggressively, reflecting a cautious approach amidst economic uncertainty. CEO surveys indicate that employers are finding it easier to fill vacant positions, suggesting a return to equilibrium post-COVID. This highlights a labor market in transition, balancing between stability and the need for more hires as confidence in the economy strengthens.
Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities amidst changing economic conditions, particularly as a new phase of post-pandemic normalization unfolds. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have paved the way for renewed investment activity, with significant capital deployed across various sectors. Focusing on areas like logistics, rental housing, and data centers has proven beneficial, as these segments show strong growth prospects due to limited supply and high demand. Strategic investment in such 'best neighborhoods' can yield substantial returns, reinforcing the importance of targeted investment approaches.
AI and Data Center Investments
The rise of artificial intelligence and big data underscores a transformative shift in investment focus toward AI infrastructure and data center development. With demand for data storage skyrocketing, investment in data centers is seen as a priority, alongside the broader ecosystem required to support these facilities. Companies are entering long-term contracts before construction to mitigate risks, demonstrating the strategic alignment between demand and supply in this sector. This positions investments in data centers as not just lucrative but also essential for supporting technological advancements in AI and related fields.
On this episode, Jason and Ken meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities across Artificial Intelligence, private markets, and real estate. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ken Caplan, Global Co-Chief Investment Officer with Blackstone. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on Sep 26. Blackstone and portfolio company data discussed in this podcast (including portfolio revenue, default and other data) is as of Q2 2024, unless otherwise stated.
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