Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview
Apr 5, 2024
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Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses the March employment report and US labor market health. Topics include payroll growth, unemployment rate decline, wage growth's impact on inflation, key data releases like job openings and ISM PMI, Federal Reserve rate cut speculation, upcoming releases like NFI B survey and March CPI report, and the influence of inflation data on market dynamics.
March employment report showed robust payroll growth and decreased unemployment rate.
Notable data releases highlighted job market imbalances and mixed economic outlook.
Deep dives
March Employment Report Overview
The March Employment Report highlighted strong payroll growth with non-farm payrolls up by 303,000, exceeding consensus expectations. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%, indicating a robust labor market. Average hourly earnings showed a slight moderation in growth, aligning with the Fed's focus on wage growth. Additionally, other indicators like labor force participation rate and household employment numbers contributed to the overall positive assessment of the report.
Key Data Releases Analysis
Apart from the Employment Report, notable data releases included steady job openings at 8.8 million, signaling imbalances in job market dynamics. The ISM PMI for manufacturing rebounded above 50, indicating sector recovery, while services PMI showed weakness at 51.4. The contrasting price trends in manufacturing and services sectors suggest a mixed economic outlook. Fed speakers expressed varied views on rate cuts, emphasizing data dependency for policy decisions.
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Analyzing the March Employment Report and Other Key Data Releases
Brian Rose joins to share his take on the March employment report, along with the health of the US labor market. We also review other key economic releases from the past week, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman
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