Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Marko Papic - A Multi-Polar World - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 268]

22 snips

Mar 15, 2022

Marko Papic, a leading macroeconomics and markets strategist at Clocktower Group, dives into the complex interplay of finance and geopolitics. He discusses the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its broader implications, including the evolving landscape of modern warfare. Marko also explores inflation management amid the rise of a multipolar world, the Federal Reserve's impact on capital markets, and the challenges of the green energy transition. His insights shed light on how global powers navigate this intricate geopolitical maze.

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INSIGHT

Russia's Military Failures

Russia's invasion strategy involved a multi-pronged attack, dividing its forces and neglecting key tactics like suppressing enemy air defenses.
Their logistical failures, including inadequate supplies and a stalled convoy, reveal weaknesses in their military capabilities.

INSIGHT

Russia's Geopolitical Goals

Russia likely seeks a "Finlandized" Ukraine, a neutral state with limited military capabilities.
They may secure a neutrality agreement but face challenges in annexing territories due to a lack of local support and the high cost of occupation.

INSIGHT

Modern Warfare and Nuclear Deterrence

Modern warfare is characterized by televised failures and readily available information, impacting public perception and potentially discouraging future conflicts.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely in the current conflict due to the nature of the battlefield and existing deterrence.

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My guest today is Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, where he leads the firm’s research on macroeconomics and markets. Marko has spent his career at the intersection of finance and geopolitics, making him a perfect person to speak to about current events in Ukraine and their potential impact further afield. Along with Russia and Ukraine, we discuss the Fed, inflation, China, the green energy transition, and the US’s position in the global order. Please enjoy this discussion with Marko Papic.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Show Notes

[00:02:48] - [First question] - His thoughts on what’s happened so far between Russia and Ukraine

[00:06:18] - The geopolitical motivations for Russia and what they can gain from the conflict

[00:10:52] - How his impressions of warfare have evolved watching this play out

[00:13:45] - What to consider about nuclear war and different types of nuclear weapons

[00:16:31] - The economic warfare from the West against Russia and its implications

[00:21:06] - Whether or not the world is de-globalizing and how interconnected we all are

[00:24:45] - How we should view post-covid inflation, specifically in the US

[00:30:34] - The ways the Fed’s role has evolved

[00:33:25] - Impacts of liquidity on asset prices and why it’s such a key factor in markets

[00:34:16] - China’s positioning and how the Ukraine conflict could alter their plans

[00:40:58] - Thoughts on Taiwan and how global supply chains might change

[00:44:47] - Why so few people believe that China has peaked; Young China

[00:48:52] - His take on income equality in the US and why it’s the number one issue

[00:53:03] - What the US could do to improve itself as a country most going forward

[00:55:35] - Having a green energy transition view is crucial and the surrounding politics

[00:59:22] - The preconditions for doing well in atoms-based innovation

[01:01:13] - What he’s watching most carefully about the conflict in Ukraine

[01:02:51] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him