Intro

My guest today is Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, where he leads the firm’s research on macroeconomics and markets. Marko has spent his career at the intersection of finance and geopolitics, making him a perfect person to speak to about current events in Ukraine and their potential impact further afield. Along with Russia and Ukraine, we discuss the Fed, inflation, China, the green energy transition, and the US’s position in the global order. Please enjoy this discussion with Marko Papic.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.

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Show Notes

[00:02:48] - [First question] - His thoughts on what’s happened so far between Russia and Ukraine

[00:06:18] - The geopolitical motivations for Russia and what they can gain from the conflict 

[00:10:52] - How his impressions of warfare have evolved watching this play out

[00:13:45] - What to consider about nuclear war and different types of nuclear weapons

[00:16:31] - The economic warfare from the West against Russia and its implications

[00:21:06] - Whether or not the world is de-globalizing and how interconnected we all are

[00:24:45] - How we should view post-covid inflation, specifically in the US

[00:30:34] - The ways the Fed’s role has evolved 

[00:33:25] - Impacts of liquidity on asset prices and why it’s such a key factor in markets

[00:34:16] - China’s positioning and how the Ukraine conflict could alter their plans

[00:40:58] - Thoughts on Taiwan and how global supply chains might change

[00:44:47] - Why so few people believe that China has peaked; Young China 

[00:48:52] - His take on income equality in the US and why it’s the number one issue

[00:53:03] - What the US could do to improve itself as a country most going forward

[00:55:35] - Having a green energy transition view is crucial and the surrounding politics

[00:59:22] - The preconditions for doing well in atoms-based innovation

[01:01:13] - What he’s watching most carefully about the conflict in Ukraine

[01:02:51] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him