Talking Markets ‘Equities edition’ with Melda Mergen (Columbia Threadneedle) & David Lefkowitz (UBS CIO)
Apr 10, 2024
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Global CIO for Equities at Columbia Threadneedle and Head of Equities Americas at UBS discuss US equities valuations, performance outlook, sector opportunities, and strategic positioning. Emphasis on high valuations of S&P 500, challenges like volatility, healthcare, energy sectors, and opportunities in emerging markets. Importance of long-term equity investment strategies.
Current US equity valuations focused on EPS growth over multiple expansion signal a healthy market return.
Elevated volatility in US equities driven by headline risks necessitates a cautious approach with potential opportunities in energy sector.
Deep dives
Current Valuations and Justification
Current valuations in the U.S. equities market have shown resilience, with key focus on EPS growth rather than multiple expansion, signaling a healthier market return. The high valuations, while historically high, are supported by strong earnings growth, indicating justified valuations. While some may raise concerns about concentrated performance, the emphasis remains on earnings growth over multiple expansion.
Near-Term Performance Outlook for US Equities
The near-term outlook for US equities suggests potential challenges with elevated volatility, driven by headline risks like the US election cycle and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite winners from the previous year facing tough comparisons, opportunities still exist in sectors like energy with generally supported valuations. Expectations point towards improved market breadth, highlighting the need for a cautious approach amidst heightened volatility.
Positioning in Emerging Markets and Other Developed Markets
Emerging markets present opportunities due to rebounding global manufacturing favoring earnings growth projections. With the potential for emerging markets to outgrow the US in earnings growth, investors are advised to consider exposures to emerging markets. Developed markets outside the US, like the UK, offer compelling valuations, indicating potential investment opportunities. Overall, strategic positioning and stock-specific considerations are recommended in both emerging and developed markets.
With a strong Q1 behind us, Melda and David outline their thoughts on current valuations, along with a performance outlook for US equities. We also cover notable headwinds to performance and discuss positioning preferences within the US and around the globe. Featured are Melda Mergen, Global Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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