Simplifying Complexity Exploring societal collapse - Part 2
Jul 21, 2025
Joining the discussion is Marten Scheffer, a Professor at Wageningen University and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute, known for his ground-breaking work on critical slowing down. He dives into how this concept signals potential societal collapse, linking it to climate change and mental health. Marten also highlights historical cycles of rise and fall, revealing early warning signs of political instability. With engaging examples, he explores the intricate relationships between societal dynamics, resilience, and impending crises.
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Pueblo People's Repeated Collapses
- The Pueblo people in the American Southwest collapsed four times over nearly a millennium.
- Data from tree rings in their dwellings shows detailed annual tree-cutting patterns before each collapse.
Critical Slowing Down Explained
- Critical slowing down is observed as systems approach tipping points, shown by slower recovery from perturbations.
- This phenomenon predicts fragility before major transitions like societal collapse or climate shifts.
Mood & Society Reveal Fragility
- Mood temporal autocorrelation predicts onset of depression; slow return to normal is a sign of vulnerability.
- Societies show this too: after disturbances, recovery is slower when they're fragile, indicating instability.