Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, shares invaluable insights on COVID-19. He discusses the true case fatality rate and how factors like obesity influence outcomes. Michael highlights the importance of immunity and cautions about supply chain issues affecting vaccines and testing. He also reflects on future protection strategies for healthcare workers and the long-term health implications for COVID survivors. His perspective balances optimism with the challenges still ahead.
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insights INSIGHT
COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics
COVID-19 behaves like influenza regarding transmission, spreading until it reaches immune individuals.
The virus may not exhibit seasonality like influenza, potentially continuing transmission for months.
insights INSIGHT
Immunity and Reinfection
A macaque monkey study suggests durable immunity against COVID-19 reinfection, at least short-term.
Recovered individuals with immunity could contribute to slowing down transmission.
insights INSIGHT
Challenges in Determining CFR
Calculating the true Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is challenging due to underreporting of deaths and infections.
Comorbidities like obesity and smoking heavily influence CFR, varying across countries.
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Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs delves into the threats posed by infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, SARS, MERS, Zika, and Ebola. It offers a nine-point battle plan to address these threats, emphasizing the need for international cooperation and preparedness. The book also discusses bioterrorism and antimicrobial resistance, providing insights into the challenges and potential solutions in the field of epidemiology.
In this episode, Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, provides an overview on the COVID-19 pandemic in regards to what has happened to date, what we’ve learned about how the disease spreads, and his optimism and pessimism about what potentially lies ahead. Michael gives his take on the true case fatality rate, why it differs around the world, and which underlying conditions, such as obesity, impact risk of severe illness and death. We also discuss the outlook regarding vaccines, repurposed drugs/antivirals for treatment, and Michael’s growing concern about supply chain limitations with respect to drugs, vaccines, n95 masks, and testing kits. We discuss:
Recapping the brief history of COVID-19 and what potentially lies ahead [2:15];
Some positive news about immunity and reinfection [10:45];
Case fatality rate—The challenge in finding the true rate, difference by country, and the impact of age, underlying conditions, and obesity [13:00];
What has to be true for less than 100,000 Americans to die from COVID-19? [24:30];
How do we best protect healthcare workers? [29:45];
Concerns about testing capability—Reagent shortfall and a supply chain problem [39:30];
Vaccines and antivirals—The outlook, timing, and challenges [47:45];
Long term health of survivors of COVID-19 [56:45];
The impact of comorbidities—Diabetes, obesity, and immunosuppressed patients [59:30];
Understanding R0 and how the disease spreads [1:01:30];
The challenge of forecasting with so many unknown [1:08:00];
What explains the difference in cases and fatalities in different parts of the world? [1:14:30];
Repurposed drugs/antivirals being considered for treatment options—any optimism? [1:16:45];
A parting message from Michael about what lies ahead [1:18:30]; and
The Peter Attia Drive 
