Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain
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Apr 25, 2025 The speakers dive into the current economic landscape, highlighting concerns about a potential U.S. recession and its implications. They discuss the shift from robust hard data to worrying soft indicators, revealing pressures from trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China. The podcast outlines the complexities of international negotiations and their potential economic repercussions. Furthermore, it explores how a U.S. recession might impact global financial systems, emphasizing interconnections that could either cushion or exacerbate vulnerabilities.
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Survey Data Signals Economic Slowdown
- Survey data indicates a falling sentiment shock that suggests economic deceleration beyond immediate hard data strength.
- This sentiment decline is broad-based across developed markets and notably impacts the service sector.
Peak of Front-Loading Trade Effect
- Front-loading in trade that supported recent economic strength likely peaked around February to March.
- March trade reports suggest modest declines in imports, hinting at a slowdown in this front-loading effect.
Trade Policy Dial-Back Debates
- US trade policy signals suggest recognition of damage caused and a potential unilateral dialing back.
- Rapid resolution with China is unlikely due to hardline negotiation stances and lack of tangible bilateral talks.