Natasha Sarin, a Yale professor and former counselor to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, dives into the urgent need for tax reform aimed at the ultra-wealthy. She discusses the potential of a wealth tax and the complexities of taxing unrealized capital gains, spotlighting current disparities in the tax system. The conversation also touches on the impact of tax reforms on charitable giving and the staggering $600 billion revenue loss from uncollected taxes. Sarin offers a hopeful perspective on future policies that can enhance transparency and fairness in taxation.
The urgent need for increased tax revenue in the U.S. is underscored by the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and rising government spending.
Proposed wealth taxes face legal and practical challenges, highlighting the complexities of accurately taxing the ultra-wealthy without compromising compliance or investment behavior.
Deep dives
The Need for Increased Tax Revenue
The United States faces a significant need for increased tax revenue as existing tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire and government borrowing continues to rise. Without intervention, debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to climb considerably, leading to potential funding shortages for essential programs like Social Security and Medicare. Currently, the U.S. collects less tax revenue than many other developed nations, ranking poorly within the OECD. This situation necessitates discussions about equitable methods of raising the required revenue, particularly by focusing on the wealthiest segments of society.
Challenges and Considerations for Taxing the Wealthy
Targeting the wealthy for tax increases raises practical and legal challenges, particularly regarding proposed wealth taxes. The difficulty lies in accurately assessing the value of various assets that constitute an individual's wealth, such as art or privately held companies, as well as navigating potential constitutional objections. While some experts believe a wealth tax could be constitutional, others argue it would face insurmountable legal hurdles. Moreover, the current tax system is equipped to tax wage income effectively, but compliance is significantly lower for capital income, which presents issues of fairness and revenue generation.
The Case for Reforming Capital Gains Taxation
Reassessing the treatment of capital gains could yield substantial revenue and improve tax equity, particularly for unrealized gains. Currently, the taxation of capital gains only occurs upon realization, creating instances where wealth accumulated on paper escapes taxation. A proposed 'billionaire's minimum tax' on unrealized gains aims to address this loophole, with significant revenue projections. Challenges remain regarding implementation, as expectations of compliance could affect investment behaviors, but fostering transparency and third-party income reporting may enhance tax collection efficiency.
In 2025, some major provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are going to expire. Meanwhile, spending is likely to rise. That means there is going to be a conversation about tax policy. Natasha Sarin was a counselor to Treasury secretary Janet Yellen at the US Treasury, and is now a professor at Yale and president of the Budget Lab, a research centre analysing US policy. And one thing she has been studying is the tax position of many of the ultra-wealthy. Much of their wealth is in stocks, which aren’t taxed until they’re sold. This week we are going to ask, what is the best way of taxing the top 1 per cent?
Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here