

Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity
74 snips May 29, 2023
Luca Dellanna, an insightful author and consultant known for his expertise on risk and ergodicity, delves into the significance of avoiding ruin when navigating life's uncertainties. He discusses the intricate relationship between risk-taking and career longevity, using professional skiing as a backdrop. The conversation highlights the need for ethical approaches to risk management, touching on the dangers of artificial intelligence and pandemics. Dellanna emphasizes the importance of understanding variance in decision-making and the value of learning from failures to foster growth.
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Skier Cousin
- Luca Dellanna's cousin was a skilled skier who faced career-ending injuries.
- This illustrates that consistent performance matters more than occasional brilliance.
Survivorship Bias
- Survivorship bias prevents us from seeing those who fail due to risk-taking.
- We should consider long-term consequences, even in seemingly short-term activities.
Mike Housen Example
- A hypothetical skier, Mike Housen, wins 20% of races but also breaks his legs in 20% of races.
- His expected wins depend on the time horizon, highlighting the impact of repeated risks.