RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Bubble Bandwagons
Oct 24, 2025
The hosts dive into a surprisingly low CPI print that hints at potential Fed rate cuts. They explore how weak rents and job slowdowns are driving disinflation. The conversation shifts to Trump's aggressive trade strategies and their muted effect on inflation. Jeff highlights signs of a gold bubble, warning of ETF inflows as potential warning signals. Additionally, they discuss the impact of a government shutdown on data and what to expect from upcoming trade negotiations during Trump’s Asia trip.
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Services Disinflation From Weak Rents
- Core services inflation is cooling, driven largely by weaker rent growth and slowing jobs.
- That disinflation makes further Fed cuts likely in October and December according to Neil Dutta.
Tariffs Are Relative Price Shifts
- Tariffs are producing relative price shifts but so far not broad inflationary pressure.
- The effective tariff rate is much lower than headline rates, muting consumer-price impact.
Tariff Rhetoric As Pre-Trip Signaling
- Trump's tariff rhetoric is part policy and part signaling ahead of his Asia trip.
- Effective tariff rates and exemptions blunt immediate market impact but the rhetoric raises geopolitical trade headlines to watch.