GD POLITICS

2025 Could See Lowest Murder Rate On Record

Jul 28, 2025
In this discussion, Jeff Asher, a data analyst with experience in the New Orleans Police Department and CIA, dives into the significant drop in U.S. murder rates. He highlights how cities like New York and San Francisco are experiencing historic lows, despite public perception believing crime is rising. They explore the complexities behind these trends, the influence of police response times, and innovative strategies for improving safety. Asher argues for better communication of these realities to bridge the gap between crime statistics and societal beliefs.
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INSIGHT

Historic Drop in US Murders

  • 2024 shows the largest one-year drop in murders on record for the third straight year in the U.S.\n- Cities like LA, Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco and NYC are seeing historic lows in murder rates.
INSIGHT

Crime Trends: Pandemic Spike Then Fall

  • Murder spiked 30% in 2020 but violent crime rose only slightly and property crime generally declined with the pandemic.\n- 2025 may set a record for lowest murder rate ever, showing a remarkable crime trend reversal.
INSIGHT

Key Causes of 2020 Crime Surge

  • The surge in murders post-2020 mainly stems from diminished police legitimacy and less policing after George Floyd's death.\n- Increased gun purchases and reduced community violence programs also accelerated the violence.
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