ElectionWatch 2024: The race, the world, and investments
Apr 16, 2024
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Frank Kelly, Mike Rogers, and David Rubenstein discuss the state of the race, regional concerns like abortion and immigration, predictions on House and Senate races, impact of elections on economy and investing, importance of knowledge and education for democracy, Baltimore Orioles investment, and rebuilding efforts after bridge collapse in Baltimore.
Polling data uncertainty in battleground states raises concerns for election accuracy.
Complexities beyond the economy, like immigration and regional dynamics, influence the upcoming election outcome.
Deep dives
Current State of Presidential Campaign and Polling Data
Despite recent polls favoring former President Trump in battleground states, the accuracy of polling data remains uncertain due to fluctuating sentiments and potential shifts in voter preferences before the November elections. Furthermore, significant attention is given to the behavior of minority voters, particularly African Americans and Latinos.
Key Issues Influencing the Election Outcome
Beyond the traditional focus on the economy, the upcoming election faces complexities involving factors like immigration, regional dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. The sentiment regarding the economy contradicts actual data, raising concerns for potential impacts on the election outcome. Other prominent issues include abortion, immigration, crime, and global geopolitical developments.
Predictions for Senate and House Races
Forecasts suggest a potential shift in party control, with chances of the House representatives flipping to Democrats and the Senate possibly shifting to Republicans. Internal party challenges and redistricting issues contribute to the evolving landscape, hinting at significant implications for future legislative agendas and policy decisions.
Fiscal Stimulus and Policy Considerations Post-Election
Anticipations surround future fiscal policies under both candidates, emphasizing the need for addressing long-term fiscal challenges like Social Security and Medicare reforms. The broader policy spectrum encompasses industrial strategies, trade dynamics, and critical industry revitalization, shaping the economic landscape beyond the 2024 elections.
Listen to our first ElectionWatch virtual event, where Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, was joined by Frank Kelly, Founder & Managing Partner at Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, Mike Rogers, Former Director of the National Security Agency, and David Rubenstein, Co-Founder of The Carlyle Group.
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