Hidden Forces Financial Markets and the AI Revolution | Adam Butler
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Oct 14, 2024 Adam Butler, CIO of Resolve Asset Management, dives into the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, discussing its impact on market accountability and monetary policy. He highlights how AI is reshaping industries and poses risks to economic stability. The conversation also touches on the evolution of investment strategies, the importance of diverse forecasting methods, and the intersection of financial systems with political dynamics. Butler provides insights into the current inflation landscape and the transformative potential of AI on future economies.
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2008 Financial Crisis Impact
- Adam Butler's investment strategy was negatively impacted by government intervention in 2008.
- This led him to explore systematic models and machine learning for better forecasting.
Expert Forecasting vs. Algorithms
- Philip Tetlock's research showed experts are often less accurate than simple algorithms in forecasting.
- Aggregating expert opinions and using algorithms can improve forecast accuracy.
Systematic Investing and Machine Learning
- Systematic passive investing needs some less-informed investors to function.
- Machine learning helps assess the true error rate of models by using out-of-sample data sets.