Mike Simonsen on the housing market trends to watch this year
Jan 9, 2025
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Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research, dives into pressing housing market trends with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler. They discuss the escalating affordability crisis as home prices soar while incomes stagnate. Simonsen highlights the challenges posed by mortgage rates surpassing 7% and their impact on buyer demand. Additionally, they explore the current inventory levels in the market and how they influence pricing dynamics, along with predictions for mortgage rates in 2025. A captivating conversation on navigating today's housing landscape!
The housing market is grappling with an affordability crisis due to rising home prices and mortgage rates, impacting buyers significantly.
An increase in new listings expected in 2025 could enhance inventory levels, potentially stabilizing home prices amidst changing seller behaviors.
Deep dives
Affordability Crisis in the Housing Market
The housing market is facing a significant affordability crisis, exacerbated by rising home prices and increasing mortgage rates. Over the last 15 years, home prices have surged compared to income, particularly during the pandemic, leading to a situation where even with decreased demand, prices have not corrected significantly. Many markets, especially in regions like Florida and Texas, are experiencing steep insurance costs that further complicate affordability. As of the beginning of 2025, there are few signs of improvement in affordability, marking it as a prevailing concern for the housing market throughout the year.
The Dynamics of Seller Activity and Inventory
The housing market is seeing some changes in seller behavior, with an increase in the number of new listings becoming available. After a period of low seller activity due to favorable mortgage rates, more homeowners appear ready to enter the market, signaling a potential uptick in inventory by about 15% in 2025. This increase is crucial as it could alleviate some pressure on home prices if supply outpaces demand. More sellers in the market can lead to healthier transactions and less upward pressure on prices, which benefits overall market stability.
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Market Trends
Mortgage rates are currently at some of the highest levels seen in recent years, significantly affecting buyer demand and home sales. With rates hovering over 7%, the burden on potential buyers has intensified, causing transactions to become slower as many individuals are hesitant to purchase despite slight dips in rates. Looking ahead to 2025, experts predict that while rates are likely to fluctuate, a prolonged period in the sevens could suppress market activity and prolong the affordability crisis. Understanding this interplay between rising rates and housing demand is vital for predicting future market trends.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, about the two big housing market trends to watch in 2025.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.