Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: And now, a word from our PMIs

May 24, 2024

This podcast discusses the resilience of US growth and the rebound of Europe from last year's stall. It highlights weak consumer spending in Europe, anticipating a perk up, and predicts ECB and BoC cuts in June. The Fed and BoE face risks with a warning in Fed minutes and upside surprise in UK April inflation.

23:06

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Quick takeaways

Positive growth outlook for US and Europe based on resilient flash PMIs.

Challenges in euro area consumer spending question its alignment with economic growth forecasts.

Deep dives

Euro Area PMIs Reflect Improving Economic Conditions

The flash PMIs in the euro area showed a significant improvement, signaling a broad-based upward momentum across sectors. Despite challenges in interpreting PMI signals due to pandemic-related disruptions, the consistent upward trend in the numbers since the beginning of the year indicates positive growth. The performance of the manufacturing sector, which faced setbacks in the previous month, rebounded strongly, offering encouraging signs for economic recovery in the region.

Introduction

3min

Analysis of Data Fluctuations and GDP Forecasts based on PMIs

2min

Euro Area Growth Forecast and Consumer Spending Trends

4min

Global Manufacturing Sector and Economic Outlook

11min

Speculation on Economic Forecast Changes and Data Releases

3min

The May flash PMIs this week add to confidence that US growth is resilient and that Europe is rebounding from last year’s stall. Consumer spending is still a weak point in Europe through last quarter, but this only reinforces our view that spending will perk up. Confidence in the disinflation path still points to ECB and BoC cuts in June, while risks for the Fed and BoE are pushing further out—underscored by a warning in this week’s Fed minutes and a strong upside surprise in UK April inflation.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: And now, a word from our PMIs

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Euro Area PMIs Reflect Improving Economic Conditions

Consumer Spending Trends and Economic Growth Projections

Global Industry Outlook and Central Bank Policy Considerations

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts