Forward Guidance The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian
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Mar 7, 2025 
Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge, shares his insights on the precarious economic landscape. He discusses the February jobs report, highlighting rising unemployment and the looming threat of stagflation. The conversation shifts to inflation trends, particularly in goods versus services, and the impact of tariffs on the economy. El-Erian also analyzes global dynamics, contrasting Europe’s unexpected growth with challenges in China and Japan. Finally, he explores Bitcoin's role in the macroeconomic scene, considering its potential as a digital asset.
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Concerning Jobs Report Trends
- The February jobs report wasn't surprising overall, but revealed concerning trends.
- Labor market weakness might increase stagflation risk, impacting income security.
Rising Income Insecurity
- Income insecurity is rising, whether employed or jobless, due to hiring difficulties.
- This fuels recessionary probabilities, increasing from 10% to 25-30%.
Stagflationary Data Signals
- The ISM manufacturing data reveals falling new orders alongside surging prices.
- Businesses face the dilemma of passing increased input costs to consumers, potentially worsening inflation.