Russian Roulette Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Geopolitics in the South Caucasus
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Jul 15, 2025 Richard Giragosian, the founding director of the Regional Studies Center in Armenia, and Jeffrey Mankoff, an expert on Russia and Eurasia, dive into the complex geopolitics of the South Caucasus. They discuss the escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the historical roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Azerbaijan's growing ties with Turkey. The pair also explore Armenia's efforts to break free from Russian influence, strengthen Western relations, and navigate the challenges of its evolving political landscape.
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Azerbaijan's Autonomy from Russia
- Azerbaijan has pursued autonomy from Russia using a strong partnership with Turkey, reshaping regional power dynamics.
- This autonomy challenges Russia's traditional influence, especially amid peace negotiations excluding Moscow.
Origins and Evolution of Nagorno-Karabakh
- Nagorno-Karabakh conflict rooted in Soviet-era ethnic and territorial arrangements.
- Azerbaijan reclaimed the territory militarily, ending Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto autonomy as it existed for decades.
Armenia’s Shift and Localized Peace Talks
- Armenia is shifting toward a peace-focused, post-war accommodation accepting lost territories.
- Current negotiations exclude Russia and the West, reducing Moscow's traditional spoiler role.