Thoughts on the Market

Why a Fed Pivot Could Trigger Volatility

24 snips

Sep 3, 2025

The recent shift in U.S. monetary policy, as articulated by Fed Chair Jay Powell, emphasizes managing growth risks while accepting greater inflation. This could signal a change in market dynamics and lead to increased volatility. Experts predict mostly positive returns for fixed income and equities through year-end, though investors should prepare for unpredictable market conditions. The dialogue explores how these changes might impact future asset class performance, urging caution amidst evolving financial landscapes.

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INSIGHT

Fed Shifts Toward Growth Risk Management

Jay Powell signaled the Fed is more focused on downside growth risks and somewhat more tolerant of inflation.
That shift likely brings forward a Fed cut and changes the timing of policy easing into 2026.

ADVICE

Position For Positive Returns With Volatility

Expect mostly positive returns across fixed income and equities into year-end but prepare for increased volatility.
Position portfolios for slower growth with a tilt toward corporate credit while monitoring long-end yield risk.

INSIGHT

Curve Could Steepen Despite Rate Cuts

A slower economy and falling policy rates point to lower front-end Treasury yields but tolerance for inflation could steepen the curve.
That means long-maturity yields might fall less or even rise, increasing duration risk.

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Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole underscored the central bank’s new focus on managing downside growth risks. Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, talks about how that shift could impact markets heading into 2026.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.

Today: What a subtle shift in the Fed’s reaction function could mean for markets into year-end.

It’s Wednesday, September 3rd at 11am in New York.

Last week, our U.S. economics team flagged a subtle but important shift in U.S. monetary policy. Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole underscored that the Fed looks more focused on managing downside growth risks and, consequently, a bit more tolerant on inflation.

As you heard Michael Gapen and Matthew Hornbach discuss last week – our colleagues expect this brings forward another Fed cut into September, kicking off a quarterly pace of 25 basis-point moves. But while this is a meaningful change in the timing of Fed rate cuts, this path would only result in slightly lower policy rates than those implied by the futures market, a proxy for the consensus of investors.

So what does it mean for our views across asset classes? In short, our central case is for mostly positive returns across fixed income and equities into year-end. But the Fed’s increased tolerance for inflation is a new wrinkle that means investors are likely to experience more volatility along the way.

Consider U.S. government bonds. A slower economy and falling policy rates argue for lower Treasury yields. But if investors grow more convinced that the Fed will tolerate firmer inflation, the curve could steepen further, with the risk of longer maturity yields falling less, or potentially even rising.

Or consider corporate bonds. Our economic growth view is “slower but still expanding,” which generally bodes well for corporate balance sheets and, thus, the pricing of credit risk. That combined with lower front-end rates suggests a solid total return outlook for corporate credit, keeping us constructive on the asset class. But of course, if long end yields are moving higher, it would certainly cut against overall returns potential.

Finally, consider the stock market. The base case is still constructive into year-end as U.S. earnings hold firm, and recent tax cuts should further help corporate cash flows. However, if long bonds sell off, this could put the rally at risk – at least temporarily, as my colleague Mike Wilson has highlighted; given that higher long-end yields are a challenge to the valuation of growth stocks.

The risk? A repeat of the early-April dynamic where a long-end sell-off pressures valuations.

Could we count on a shift in monetary policy to curb these risks? Or another public policy shift such as easing tariffs or Treasury adjusting its bond issuance plans? Possibly. But investors should understand this would be a reaction to market conditions, not a proactive or preventative shift.

So bottom line, we still see many core markets set up to perform well, but the sailing should be less smooth than it has been in recent months.

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