Markets nervous as Russia drops the N word (again)
Nov 19, 2024
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In this discussion, Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, shares his insights on the tense geopolitical landscape and its market implications. He addresses how the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict has stirred investor nerves yet led to a swift return to focusing on earnings reports, particularly from tech giant NVIDIA. Attrill also analyzes the impact of Canadian CPI data on interest rate expectations and discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on rate cuts amid persistent inflation challenges.
Recent missile strikes and Russia's revised nuclear doctrine have heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to cautious market responses despite some fluctuations.
Canada's rising inflation metrics are influencing market expectations for interest rate cuts, highlighting the cautious stance of central banks amidst mixed economic signals.
Deep dives
Escalating Tensions in Ukraine Impact Markets
Recent missile strikes from Ukraine into Russian territory have raised concerns about escalating tensions, with Russia signaling a possible revisitation of its nuclear policy. This development has caused fluctuations in the financial markets, although reactions have been somewhat muted, particularly in the US dollar, which showed a slight decline after an initial rise. The impact on bond yields has been minimal despite a brief influx of safe-haven investments. Overall, while geopolitical risks loom large, market responses appear cautious and measured.
Canada's Inflation Trends and Market Reactions
Canada's Consumer Price Index saw an unexpected increase, with October prices rising by 0.4%, which has tempered previous market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. The average inflation metrics also showed an uptick, hinting that the economy might not cool as quickly as anticipated. This has led to a slight reduction in market pricing for potential interest rate cuts, reflecting a growing sensitivity to incoming inflation data. Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming UK inflation results to draw parallels and assess further market implications.
Global Monetary Policy Indicators and Economic Outlook
Key monetary policy updates highlight the cautious stance of central banks, particularly in Australia and the UK, regarding potential rate cuts amidst mixed economic signals. The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent minutes indicated that a significant decline in inflation would be necessary before considering any reductions in interest rates. Concurrently, the UK faces pressures to manage inflation, which is projected to remain above target due to ongoing service sector challenges. Observers are also tracking wage growth in Europe, where substantial increases in Germany could signal broader inflationary pressures, complicating the outlook for policy adjustments moving forward.
There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone.