Lessons From Southeast Asia on How to Manage Great Power Rivalries
Apr 2, 2025
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Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College and expert on Vietnamese politics, discusses contrasting strategies of Vietnam and the Philippines in dealing with China’s territorial claims. While the Philippines seeks U.S. support, Vietnam opts for a solo approach, even expanding its presence in the South China Sea through island reclamation. Vu highlights how these tactics reflect broader lessons on managing great power rivalries, emphasizing the complexities smaller nations face in navigating geopolitical dynamics.
Vietnam's assertive management of territorial disputes through island reclamation contrasts sharply with the Philippines' reliance on U.S. alliances, highlighting divergent strategies in handling China's influence.
China's rapid humanitarian response to the Myanmar earthquake, providing significant aid and advanced technology, underscores its ambition to strengthen regional dominance amidst a diminished U.S. presence.
The challenges facing ASEAN in achieving unified security actions reflect the complex national interests of member states, prompting countries to pursue independent strategies for territorial integrity.
Deep dives
Impact of the Recent Earthquake in Myanmar
A significant earthquake measuring 7.7 struck Mandalay, Myanmar, resulting in extensive devastation and a rising death toll estimated at over 1,700. This earthquake is notable as it marks a rare occurrence in Southeast Asia, a region that generally does not experience such severe seismic activity. The disaster highlights the challenges of disaster response in a locale that lacks the usual infrastructure for managing large-scale humanitarian crises. Observers noted that international aid response has shifted significantly, with the U.S. noticeably absent while China moved quickly to provide assistance.
China's Swift Humanitarian Response
In the wake of the earthquake, China was prompt in its humanitarian efforts, deploying Y-20 cargo planes with rescue teams and delivering $14 million in aid to Myanmar. The response included not only immediate relief supplies but also advanced technology to aid search and rescue operations. Chinese media has portrayed this response as a demonstration of their capability and willingness to support their regional neighbors, contrasting sharply with the scant presence of U.S. aid efforts. This situation serves as a strategic opportunity for China to enhance its influence in the region, showcasing its commitment to solidarity with Southeast Asian nations.
Differing Territorial Strategies in Southeast Asia
The podcast discusses the contrasting approaches of Southeast Asian nations in navigating territorial disputes with China, particularly focusing on Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam has historically managed its disputes more assertively, expanding its control over the South China Sea islands, while the Philippines has relied more heavily on U.S. alliances to address its territorial concerns. This difference suggests that Vietnam's strategies may provide lessons for the Philippines on successfully negotiating with China without external reliance. The implications of these strategies are significant, as Vietnam has managed to maintain its territorial claims without eliciting aggressive pushback from China.
Impact of External Alliances on Territorial Disputes
The discussion highlights that countries like Vietnam that seek to resolve disputes independently without invoking external alliances may experience less aggressive reactions from China. For the Philippines, which has sought U.S. involvement in its disputes with China, the outcome has been less favorable and often met with Chinese aggression. The historical context provided suggests that while seeking external support may seem advantageous, it can lead to increased tensions and complicate negotiations. This insight encourages a reevaluation of engagement strategies for smaller Southeast Asian nations in their interactions with China.
The Role of ASEAN and Regional Cooperation
The podcast emphasizes the limitations of existing regional frameworks like ASEAN in addressing security and territorial cooperation in Southeast Asia. While the body is seen as a central platform for dialogue, its effectiveness is hindered by the differing national interests of its member states, each of whom may prioritize bilateral relations over collective action. The contrasting experiences of Southeast Asian nations indicate a growing sentiment of self-reliance where countries are exploring independent paths to ensure their security and territorial integrity. This shift underscores the need for regional stability while recognizing the complexity of negotiations within the changing geopolitical landscape.
China and Vietnam have taken two distinctly different approaches in how they manage their territorial disputes with China. The Philippines is leaning into its alliance with the United States along with new security pacts with more than half a dozen other countries. Vietnam, in contrast, is going it alone.
Ironically, Vietnam is expanding its territorial presence in the disputed South China Sea through island reclamation, while the Philippines is merely trying to hold on to the territory it already claims. Yet, the face-off between Beijing and Manila is far more aggressive.
Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College and a leading Vietnam analyst, said the key difference between the two is the Philippines' decision to bring an outside power (the U.S.) into the dispute. Khang joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what lessons the South China Sea confrontation offers other countries trying to manage equally contentious great power rivalries.
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