The Best Ever CRE Show JF 3958: Layoffs, Tariff Uncertainty, and Treasury Pressure with John Chang
Jul 6, 2025
John Chang dives into the rollercoaster of interest rates, exploring unexpected declines influenced by political pressures. He discusses rising inflation's impact on everyday goods and the uncertainty created by tariffs on steel and aluminum. With layoffs on the rise, he highlights soft signals in the job market and their effects on commercial real estate. Demographic shifts favoring medical office, multifamily, and self-storage investments come into play, while the challenges in office, retail, and industrial sectors are also examined.
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Rates Fall, Then Rise Expected
- Interest rates have recently declined due to expectations of Fed cuts and political pressure to lower them.
- However, underlying fiscal pressures like increased Treasury issuance suggest rates will rise again later in the year.
Tariffs Create Delayed Inflation
- Tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum will create inflation that shows slowly, impacting prices over multiple quarters.
- Supply chain effects delay tariff inflation impacts until late 2024 or early 2025 for some goods.
July Tariff Decisions Heighten Uncertainty
- The 90-day tariff pause ends July 9, causing market uncertainty depending on whether tariffs rise again.
- Aggressive tariff use could increase volatility and uncertainty, affecting markets and interest rates.