Eric Ciaramella joins Quinta and Scott to discuss big wins for Ukraine at the G7, plans for government employee changes under a potential second Trump presidency, and the success of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research within the State Department. They also touch on the absurdity of conducting a virtual studio recording during a fire drill.
The US-Ukraine security agreement aims to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian threats with multilateral support.
Reintroducing Schedule F poses risks to governmental expertise, neutrality, and efficiency, potentially eroding merit-based governance.
The loan scheme leveraging frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian aid raises concerns about long-term financial sustainability and repayment contingencies.
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) within the State Department provides valuable dissenting opinions and strategic analysis within the intelligence community.
Deep dives
Ukraine and US Sign Security Agreement at Peace Summit
The peace summit between Ukraine and multiple countries focused on endorsing a communique ensuring Ukraine's territorial integrity and a US-Ukraine security agreement. This agreement includes commitments to support Ukraine with substantial financial aid, deterring Russian aggression. Although the summit had wide representation from various countries, it did not see major breakthroughs, aiming for further discussions towards a detailed peace plan in a follow-up summit.
Implications of US-Ukraine Security Agreement
The US-Ukraine security agreement, in the works since last year with multilateral support, aims to equip Ukraine with credible defense capabilities for long-term deterrence against Russian threats. It signifies a strategic framework focusing on military support, intelligence, and training to ensure Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian incursions over an extended period. Despite some critiques about its enforcement and binding elements, the agreement strategically aligns US support with Ukraine's defense needs.
Potential Threats of Reimposing Schedule F by Future Administrations
The reintroduction of Schedule F targeting civil service positions is a concerning proposal, as it could impact governmental expertise, neutral decision-making, and overall institutional efficiency. The plan, exemplified by its potential dismantling of administrative structures, risks political partisanship overriding merit-based governance. Moreover, the proposal's implications suggest a return to a patronage system that could undermine government accountability and performance standards.
Impact of Schedule F on Administration Competency and Civil Service Culture
Reimposing Schedule F could lead to an erosion of government competency and institutional knowledge, as it prioritizes political allegiance over professionalism in civil service appointments. The potential mass removal of experienced civil servants and hasty replacement with questionable appointments may significantly disrupt government operations and policy implementation. Concerns also arise regarding the maintenance of vital institutional cultures and knowledge essential for effective governance in the face of potential disruptive changes.
Concerns Surrounding a Potential Repossession of Frozen Russian Assets for Ukrainian Aid
The funding scheme proposing loans to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets abroad raises questions about the sustainability of financial aid and repayment mechanisms. While the arrangement offers immediate financial support, uncertainties linger over long-term funding obligations and contingencies if asset-based repayment falls short. The reliance on a stream of assets from Euroclear exposes the complexity of international finance in tying financial mechanisms to geopolitical disputes and reparations dynamics.
Discussion on the Loan Structure and Financing for Ukrainian Assistance
The loan mechanism leveraging frozen Russian assets through Euroclear to fund Ukrainian aid highlights innovative financial solutions amid geopolitical tensions. The structure involves annual payments taxed by the European Union to support Ukraine, tapping into existing assets without liquidating them directly. Despite potential repayment challenges and dependencies on asset streams, the loan initiative represents a strategic approach to bridging financial gaps and sustaining Ukrainian support amidst ongoing conflicts and funding uncertainties.
Impact of Reassigning Civil Service Positions
Reassigning federal civil servants to new Schedule F positions could lead to significant disruptions in the functioning of government agencies. The reassignment of experienced individuals to roles with fewer protections may result in trust issues and inefficiencies within government operations. Despite potential legal and logistical challenges in fully implementing this reassignment, the broader threat lies in the unsettling environment it creates for civil servants, increasing the risk of demoralization and career consequences.
INR's Role in Intelligence Analysis
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) within the State Department plays a crucial role in providing strategic intelligence analysis. Despite being smaller in size compared to other intelligence agencies, INR offers valuable historical insights and a unique perspective in assessing global events. Its focus on broader trends and strategic issues complements the more tactical intelligence provided by agencies like the CIA, contributing to a diversity of viewpoints within the intelligence community. INR's ability to offer dissenting opinions acts as a vital check on groupthink and ensures a comprehensive assessment of complex national security issues.
This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Contributing Editor and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eric Ciaramella to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
“Prime Deliverables, in Two Days or Less.” The Biden administration and its European allies coughed up a number of big wins for Ukraine at a meeting of the G7 and subsequent Ukraine peace summit this past week, ranging from a new U.S.-Ukraine security agreement to a commitment to provide $50 billion in assistance derived from frozen Russian assets. But are these measures game-changers—especially with political changes in both Europe and the United States on the horizon?
“Trying to F Us.” Policy advisors to former President Trump reportedly have some big plans for government employees if he is elected to a second stint in the White House—including the return of Schedule F, an reorganization of the civil service that would have gutted job protections and made it easier to replace civil servants with partisan loyalists. How big a problem are these plans? And how feasible are they really?
“Revenge of the Nerds.” A little known intelligence agency within the State Department—the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, or INR—has gotten some great press of late, celebrating several notable analytic victories it’s secured, often in dissent from the rest of the intelligence community. Is there some secret to INR’s success? Or is it overblown?
For object lessons, Quinta shared more important NJ political corruption news. Scott awarded his song of the summer to “Right Back to It,” the single off Waxahatchee’s phenomenal “Tiger’s Blood.” And Eric recommended “Sovietistan,” a travelogue about Central Asia by Norwegian anthropologist Erika Fatland.
