Join Alexander Gabuev, a scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, as he discusses the surprising persistence of support for Vladimir Putin among Russians. The conversation reveals how the Ukraine war and military setbacks haven't significantly eroded this backing. Gabuev shares insights into Russia's economic resilience despite sanctions, the complex dynamics of elite rifts, and the country's shifting diplomatic relations. The struggles of Russians in exile and their fight for identity also come to light.
Despite Ukraine's successful military operations and setbacks, Putin maintains confidence in achieving victory and adjusts strategies accordingly.
While the Russian economy appears resilient due to high global commodity prices, underlying dissent among elites could threaten long-term support for the war.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive and Russian Resolve
Ukraine's recent offensive in the Kursk region showcases its capability to launch surprising military operations, leading to substantial territorial gains. This surprising shift, with Ukrainian forces taking control of Suja, caught both Russia and the international community off guard. Despite the setbacks, it appears that Russian President Putin remains undeterred, believing he can still achieve victory in the ongoing conflict, especially in the Donbas area. He is reportedly focusing on upcoming political events, including the U.S. election, to adjust his military strategy while maintaining pressure on Ukrainian forces.
The Economic Resilience of Russia Amid Sanctions
Contrary to early predictions, the Russian economy has shown notable resilience in the face of extensive Western sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion. High global commodity prices in 2022 allowed Russia to earn substantial revenues, compensating for frozen assets and fostering a temporary economic boom. Additionally, the government is reportedly leveraging compensation payments to families of fallen soldiers, boosting consumer spending within the country. As a result, many Russian cities are experiencing a surge in cash flow, which is creating a complex economic environment that, while unsustainable long-term, currently supports the war effort.
Public Sentiment and Military Recruitment Challenges in Russia
While the Russian government has managed to maintain a facade of public support for the war, underlying sentiments of dissatisfaction are emerging, particularly among the elite and educated classes. Recruitment for the military is becoming increasingly challenging, prompting the government to offer higher incentives to potential volunteers. However, the need for a more substantial troop base may soon force the regime to resort to more drastic measures, such as implementing stricter draft policies. The potential consequences of these growing casualties and dissatisfaction among the populace could ultimately jeopardize the current state of support for the war effort.
Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of Russia represented another sign that Vladimir Putin’s invasion is not going to plan. But numerous setbacks, and the sanctions regime imposed by the west, have so far failed to loosen the Russian leader’s grip on power. Gideon discusses why Russians are still backing Putin with Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Clip: Deutsche Welle