Why new Carta data shows bridge rounds might be worse than you think. | Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta
Feb 13, 2025
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Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, dives into the latest Q4 2024 venture capital trends. He reveals that companies raising bridge rounds face significantly lower graduation rates to Series A. The discussion highlights the growing dominance of AI in funding, with larger rounds being directed to fewer companies. Peter also touches on the shifting hiring practices in the startup ecosystem and how these trends impact early-stage founders. If you want to stay on par with VCs, understanding these insights is crucial!
Bridge rounds are increasingly common but significantly hinder graduation rates to Series A, with only 4% success, indicating potential wasted capital.
The venture capital landscape is shifting towards larger funding amounts for fewer AI-centric companies, with AI capturing 50% of late-stage capital allocations.
Deep dives
Trends in Fundraising and Valuations
In 2024, venture capital fundraising saw an increase in cash raised, approximately 18% to 20% more than in 2023, despite a 5% decrease in the number of rounds. This trend indicates that larger amounts of capital are being allocated to fewer companies, particularly in the AI sector, which significantly dominates late-stage rounds. While many companies are seeing increasing valuations, the overall fundraising pace has remained stagnant, especially for early-stage ventures. This discrepancy suggests a competitive environment where only a handful of companies, mainly in AI, are thriving, leaving others struggling to secure funding.
The Rise of AI in Venture Capital
AI companies have increasingly captured the venture capital landscape, accounting for around 30% to 35% of capital in early rounds and a striking 50% of capital in late-stage funding. This rise has led to a peculiar trend where late-stage investments are primarily funneled into just a few dominant AI firms. The discussion acknowledges that non-AI firms can still raise capital, but there is a growing concern about how long AI will continue to be a distinctive investment category. As AI technologies become more integrated into all sectors, the narrative may shift from AI vs. everything else to a focus on how AI enhances existing companies.
The Future of Bridge Rounds
The data reflects a growing trend in which companies are increasingly raising bridge rounds after their initial seed financing, with 30% to 40% of seed-funded companies seeking extensions. However, there is skepticism regarding the efficacy of these bridge rounds, particularly those utilizing convertible notes or safes. Historical data reveals a stark difference in series A graduation rates, with only 4% of companies raising bridge funding successfully advancing to series A. This raises concerns that many bridge rounds might ultimately lead to wasted capital, indicating a trend towards extended timelines for startups struggling to scale.
Shift in Startup Employment Trends
In 2024, startups are operating with fewer employees per unit of revenue, as evidenced by a drop in median headcount from 20 to 13 in companies raising Series A rounds. This strategic downsizing reflects a movement towards capital efficiency, driven by a desire to maintain robust revenue per employee metrics amid rising operational costs. While this trend allows for agile decision-making and minimizes communication overhead, it also leads to fewer opportunities for potential employees in the startup ecosystem. The long-term implications for startup employment remain uncertain, particularly as founders consider whether to scale teams alongside evolving technological capabilities.
Carta just released their report for Q4 2024. Peter is Head of Insights at Carta, and the person who owns their data practice. We sit down to talk about the largest trends he saw across fundraising, industries, graduation rates and even hiring practices.
Carta data shows that graduation rates from Seed to A are much lower for companies that have raised a bridge round. We analyze why that might be and what that could mean for early-stage founders.
VCs read and understand all this data. If you want to operate on equal footing— you should too.
Why you should listen:
The role of AI in the venture capital landscape.
Why there are a trend of larger funding rounds going to fewer companies.
Why so much capital is being allocated to AI companies.
Valuations for seed and early-stage companies are on the rise.
Why bridges and extensions have become so popular.
Why bridge rounds have lower graduation rates to Series A.
What the data shows about how hiring practices are changing.
Keywords venture capital, AI, fundraising, market trends, valuations, startup ecosystem, early stage, late stage, investment, venture capital, bridge rounds, seed extensions, startup growth, hiring practices, AI impact, early stage funding, market trends, valuations, exits