Rising Tensions and the Threat of Conflict

The prospect of a military conflict between the United States and China is increasingly recognized in Washington, influencing decisions in the Pentagon. This is marked by a growing perception that the U.S.-China economic relationship has shifted from cooperation to a zero-sum competition, where U.S. success depends on containing China's rise. The increasing military capabilities of China exacerbate concerns, especially as China's military spending remains steady relative to its economic growth. As a result, discussions within U.S. circles have shifted toward war-gaming potential conflicts, indicating a significant change in the mindset regarding U.S.-China relations.