HousingWire Daily A preview of jobs week amid a possible government shutdown
8 snips
Oct 1, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst focused on housing and mortgage market trends, joins to discuss the upcoming jobs report and potential economic impacts of a government shutdown. He warns that a shutdown could disrupt crucial data flow. Logan reveals that while job openings are slightly up, other indicators show labor market softening. He analyzes how bond market movements reflect labor data and Fed policies, and explains why mortgage rates are unlikely to drop below 6%. He also critiques the Fed's stance on job metrics versus population growth.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Job Openings Mask Labor Softening
- The job openings headline looked stable but internals show softness: quits and hires are down while layoffs haven't spiked.
- That softening pressured the 10-year yield slightly and signals a labor market slowing without a clear break.
Fed Policy Drives Rates More Than Data
- Fed policy dominates where the 10-year yield and mortgage rates can go, making sub-6% mortgages unlikely without policy shifts.
- Mortgage spreads and Fed communication, not just data, largely set mortgage-rate trajectories.
Focus On Jobless Claims For Fed Moves
- Watch jobless claims and layoffs for a clear signal before expecting Fed action or a market shift.
- Don't assume softer quits or hires alone will force policy changes until claims meaningfully rise.