ICIS - chemical podcasts Episode 1496: Middle East crisis threatens shortages, higher prices and inflation
Sep 16, 2026
Paul Hodges, Chairman of New Normal Consulting and a chemicals, energy and markets analyst, explores how Middle East conflict could disrupt oil routes, refineries and petrochemical supplies. They discuss depleted strategic reserves, winter shortages, renewed inflation, rising debt pressures and rationing risks. Weak polyethylene margins also reveal fragile demand and limited pricing power, while the show remembers industry contributor John Richardson.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Two Gulf Chokepoints Threaten Global Supply
- The Bab al-Mandeb seizure threatens a second Gulf trade route, potentially closing major escape routes for oil and goods.
- Rerouting shipments to Asia could add a month, while pipeline damage and constrained supplies amplify chemical prices and inflation.
Diesel Shortages Point Toward Rationing
- Diesel shortages combine refinery damage, war, trade disruption, and weak strategic reserves into a broader petrochemical crisis.
- Paul Hodges expects demand destruction or government rationing as lost oil supplies approach 3.5 billion barrels by Christmas.
Redesign Risk Plans Before Shortages Hit
- Reassess business risk plans instead of assuming the conflict will suddenly resolve and markets will normalize.
- Plan now to keep factories operating, employees working, and customers supplied before shortages become obvious.
