The spread of conflict across the Middle East threatens another period of extreme market volatility, as players face up to increasing disruption with strategic reserves much lower than at the start of the conflict.
• Seizure of the port of Mokha and Perim Island in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, threatens the closure a second key Gulf trade route
• Global diesel supply critically short with Russian and Gulf refineries severely impaired
• The magnitude of closed-off crude supplies and constrained oil product availability increases the risk of a 1973-74-style fuel crisis
• Higher prices, tighter supply adds fuel to inflation, which could skyrocket over the next 12 months
• Weaker US polyethylene margins and a slide back to negative margins in northeast Asia point to limited pricing power and weak demand
• Inflation and energy costs could further hit consumer demand as northern hemispheric winter approaches
We also mark the passing of friend and contributor John Richardson. If listeners have memories of John they would like to share please get in touch at [email protected]
