The Edition: Team Trump, astrologers versus pollsters & debating history
Oct 31, 2024
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This week, Kate Andrews, economics editor at The Spectator, delves into the role of the Trump family in the upcoming election, highlighting how familial ties influence political strategy. Christina Rodenbeck, astrology expert and host of Astrology Talk, compares the predictions of astrologers vs. pollsters, raising intriguing questions about which might provide better insights for the U.S. election. Lastly, Mary Beard, renowned classicist, debates how we should judge historical figures, particularly the often-misrepresented women of ancient Rome.
Donald Trump's campaign strategy relies heavily on family involvement, highlighting the evolving roles played by his relatives in shaping political dynamics.
The podcast discusses the debate over the reliability of polling versus astrological predictions, questioning the accuracy and ambiguity inherent in both forecasting methods.
Deep dives
The Trump Family Dynamic in Politics
Donald Trump's campaign places significant emphasis on family involvement, showcasing a pattern where key roles are filled by his relatives. Throughout Trump's political journey, members like Ivanka and Jared Kushner were pivotal during the 2016 campaign, while this time around, Donald Trump Jr. has taken a more prominent role. Moreover, Barron Trump has recently been spending more time with his father, offering insights into modern social media dynamics that engage younger audiences. This shift highlights an ongoing connection between personal relationships and political strategy, emphasizing that family remains central to Trump’s public persona.
Polling vs. Astrology: Alternative Predictions
The reliability of traditional polling methods has come into question, with some suggesting that astrologers might provide predictions with similar accuracy. In discussions, one commentator noted that while polling is often viewed as a numerical science, predictions from astrologers are similarly ambiguous. Some astrologers indicated that while they may support predictions for candidates like Kamala Harris, the true outcome is often unclear until the actual inauguration. This uncertainty reflects broader sentiments about the complexities of electoral forecasting and the inherent unpredictability of political outcomes.
The Future of Trumpism in the Republican Party
Irrespective of the election outcome, Trump's influence on the Republican Party is expected to linger, largely due to the family's established presence within the party. Figures such as Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner have taken prominent roles, suggesting that Trump's political legacy may not simply fade away. Historical context shows that despite past beliefs that Trumpism would be succeeded by other candidates, the unique appeal of Trump’s personality and style is challenging to replicate. This ongoing dynamic suggests that even if he steps back from the forefront, the Trump brand may continue to shape the party's identity.
Power Brokers in Trump’s Inner Circle
In examining Trump’s potential future administration, various key figures from the business and political landscape are emerging as influential players. Notable names include media personalities and major Republican donors who may have significant sway over appointments and policies. The discussion highlighted concerns about whether Trump would appoint more traditional establishment figures or maintain loyalty to his family's closest allies. This complex interplay between family loyalty and external pressures reflects the chaotic nature of his political operations, indicating that a blend of influences will shape decision-making if he wins.
This week: Team Trump – who’s in, and who’s out? To understand Trumpworld you need to appreciate it’s a family affair, writes Freddy Gray in the magazine this week. For instance, it was 18-year-old Barron Trump who persuaded his father to do a series of long ‘bro-casts’ with online male influencers such as Joe Rogan. In 2016, Donald’s son-in-law Jared Kushner was the reigning prince; this year, he has been largely out of the picture. Which family figures are helping Trump run things this time around, and which groups hold the most influence? Freddy joins the podcast alongside economics editor Kate Andrews. What are the most important personnel decisions facing Trump if he wins next week? (0:58).
Next: do astrologers predict elections better than pollsters? When pollster Nate Silver declared that dissecting an individual poll is like ‘doing astrology’, it led Andrew Watts to ponder what sorts of predictions astrologers make about elections. Could there be some merit in consulting them? And are astrologists better predictors than pollsters? Andrew joined the podcast to discuss further alongside The Oxford Astrologer’s Christina Rodenbeck, host of podcast Astrology Talk. What do the planets tell us about next week’s US election? (13:18).
And finally: by whose values should we judge the past? Joan Smith’s new book Unfortunately, she was a nymphomaniac: a new history of Rome’s imperial women is reviewed in the Books section of the magazine this week. An eye-catching title which is ‘as thought provoking as it is provocative’ Daisy Dunn writes. Many popular historians are singled out for criticism for how they analyse women from ancient Rome, including Professor Dame Mary Beard. Is there merit in judging history by today’s standards? Well Mary Beard joined us to provide her thoughts (26:32).
Hosted by William Moore and Lara Prendergast.
Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.
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