Knowledge at Wharton Wharton Moneyball: How Analytics Are Redefining Playoff Predictions Across College and Pro Sports
Nov 12, 2025
Discover how advanced analytics are revolutionizing sports predictions, from the MLB’s Gold Glove metrics to NFL power rankings. The debate heats up over defensive evaluations and how outs translate to wins. Unearth the implications of the new 12-team College Football Playoff format on championship probabilities and late-season games. Plus, explore home-field advantages, the influence of market odds, and even the dilemmas of star player management in the NBA. Tune in for insights that reshape our understanding of sports!
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Analytics Enter Gold Glove Voting
- MLB added analytics to Gold Glove voting but still weights human opinion heavily in awards.
- Outs Above Average and Defensive Run Saves inform decisions but have limitations like ignoring fielder positioning.
Outs Above Average Omits Positioning
- Outs Above Average uses player locations and ball trajectories to estimate play probabilities.
- The metric doesn't credit positioning, so it confounds range with tactical placement.
Positioning Versus Range Tradeoff
- Confounding positioning and range can still serve evaluation purposes because teams control positioning.
- Decomposing matters more when you want to improve a player's skills or manage personnel.