Pre-Event Indicators: Staying Left of Bang With Patrick Van Horne

Jul 2, 2025

Patrick Van Horne, co-author of "Left of Bang" and former Marine Corps Combat Hunter instructor, reveals how his framework for threat detection can be applied beyond combat to business and everyday life. He discusses the importance of anticipating disruptions, establishing baselines, and recognizing weak signals to avoid reactive responses. Van Horne emphasizes adaptive growth over collapse during crises and explains how situational awareness can lead to success. The conversation also explores evolving urban dynamics and the balance between flexibility and preparedness.

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ANECDOTE

Combat Hunter Program Origin Story

The Combat Hunter program taught Marines to identify threats by baselining normal behavior and spotting anomalies.
This reactive disadvantage was addressed by improving observation and situational awareness in Iraq and Afghanistan.

INSIGHT

Importance of Baselining

Establishing a baseline of what's normal allows recognizing changes or anomalies.
Baselines differ by role and environment, guiding the decision-making process accordingly.

ADVICE

Define Decisions and Action Points

Define the decisions you need to make and identify watch points and action points that signal when to act.
Build systems to monitor these points to alert you early and enable proactive measures.

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What if you could see disruption coming before it hits? The concept of "Left of Bang" transforms how we understand threat detection and strategic advantage—not just in combat zones, but in boardrooms, investment portfolios, and everyday situations.

Patrick Van Horne, co-author of "Left of Bang" and former Marine Corps Combat Hunter instructor, breaks down this powerful framework that was originally developed to help Marines identify insurgent threats in Iraq and Afghanistan. The premise is elegantly simple: "bang" is any critical event that forces reaction, and positioning yourself "left of bang" means you've anticipated it, prepared for it, and can potentially shape the outcome rather than merely responding to it.

The discussion reveals how this approach creates fractal advantages across different domains. For business leaders, it means establishing systems to monitor weak signals and market shifts. For investors, it provides a framework to recognize patterns before markets react. For security professionals, it sharpens threat recognition. At every level, the methodology transforms reactive thinking into proactive positioning.

Van Horne explains that when disruption hits, organizations typically follow one of three paths: immediate collapse, diminished survival, or adaptive growth. The difference isn't luck—it's preparation, awareness, and the ability to detect what others miss. He introduces practical components like establishing baselines (what's normal), identifying watch points (indicators to monitor), and setting action points (thresholds that trigger decisions).

The episode underscores the synergy between Left of Bang and Boyd’s OODA loop, highlighting how both empower individuals and organizations to stay ahead of disruptions by embracing adaptability, decentralized decision-making, and a deep understanding of complex environments. Van Horne’s insights, grounded in real-world applications, make a compelling case for why Left of Bang is essential reading for anyone seeking to thrive in uncertainty—whether in combat, business, or everyday life.

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