No Way Out

Pre-Event Indicators: Staying Left of Bang With Patrick Van Horne

Jul 2, 2025
Patrick Van Horne, co-author of "Left of Bang" and former Marine Corps Combat Hunter instructor, reveals how his framework for threat detection can be applied beyond combat to business and everyday life. He discusses the importance of anticipating disruptions, establishing baselines, and recognizing weak signals to avoid reactive responses. Van Horne emphasizes adaptive growth over collapse during crises and explains how situational awareness can lead to success. The conversation also explores evolving urban dynamics and the balance between flexibility and preparedness.
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ANECDOTE

Combat Hunter Program Origin Story

  • The Combat Hunter program taught Marines to identify threats by baselining normal behavior and spotting anomalies.
  • This reactive disadvantage was addressed by improving observation and situational awareness in Iraq and Afghanistan.
INSIGHT

Importance of Baselining

  • Establishing a baseline of what's normal allows recognizing changes or anomalies.
  • Baselines differ by role and environment, guiding the decision-making process accordingly.
ADVICE

Define Decisions and Action Points

  • Define the decisions you need to make and identify watch points and action points that signal when to act.
  • Build systems to monitor these points to alert you early and enable proactive measures.
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