John Rapley & Philip Pilkington: Is a market crash coming?
Jan 27, 2025
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John Rapley, an economist and author of "Why Empires Fall," teams up with macroeconomist Philip Pilkington, host of the Multipolarity podcast. They delve into the significant decline in US tech valuations and the disruptive rise of the Chinese AI app Deep Seek. The duo analyzes potential indicators of a forthcoming market crash, debates the contrasting economic philosophies of the Trump era, and discusses the shifting investments of global elites at Davos. With a blend of skepticism and insight, they navigate the turbulent waters of today’s economy.
The emergence of China's Deep Seek AI model raises concerns about inflated U.S. tech stock valuations and potential market instability.
A market crash could politically impact the Trump administration by shifting blame for economic downturns to the new administration despite underlying issues.
Deep dives
Market Reactions to Deep Seek
A significant sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has caused investors to express serious concerns, with fears that the Deep Seek AI model from China might be a game changer in the industry. Deep Seek, developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, is seen as highly disruptive due to its open-source nature, allowing for widespread adaptation without hefty licensing fees. This innovation is contributing to market jitters, particularly affecting businesses reliant on GPU sales, such as NVIDIA and AMD, leading to declines in their stock prices. The reduced demand for chips could signal a potential bubble burst in the AI sector, which has seen inflated valuations driven by previous technological advancements.
Implications for the Stock Market Bubble
The introduction of the Deep Seek AI model is triggering questions about the sustainability of a recent stock market boom that has been heavily buoyed by a few key tech companies. Economists suggest that the AI hype began with the launch of ChatGPT and has led to overvaluations in companies expected to benefit from AI advancements. With this new, cost-effective AI technology, the narrative supporting these inflated stock valuations is at risk of unraveling, posing a threat to investor confidence across the market. This situation may foreshadow a bear market as investors reassess the viability of these companies' growth projections.
Political Consequences of a Market Crash
A potential stock market crash could have significant repercussions for the Trump administration as economic performance is often closely tied to public perception of political success. Early jitters in the market following the inauguration may shift blame from the outgoing administration to the new one, despite the underlying issues being independent of political leadership. The administration's reliance on a booming market as a cornerstone of its economic strategy risks political fallout should the market downturn begin to affect the broader economy. The fragility of the U.S. economy, heavily influenced by debt and past policy decisions, heightens the stakes for the administration's long-term goals.
Technological Innovations and Global Economics
The emergence of the Deep Seek model underscores a shift in how technology impacts global economics, particularly as it relates to U.S.-China relations and competition in AI. The model's success raises questions about American technological dominance and the reliance on traditional firms for AI solutions. As smaller startups demonstrate capabilities on smaller budgets, the narrative surrounding government-backed monopolies may come under scrutiny. This re-evaluation could prompt discussions about antitrust measures, especially concerning major players in the tech sector, and redefine the future landscape of innovation and economic collaboration.
Macroeconomists and market watchers John Rapley and Philip Pilkington join UnHerd’s Freddie Sayers to investigate the apparent market slump set off by Chinese AI app DeepSeek.