Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show Rate Cuts, Rising Debt, and the Third Fed Mandate
Sep 20, 2025
A panel discusses the Fed's recent rate cut and the surprising introduction of a "third mandate" aimed at moderating long-term rates. They raise concerns about CPI data quality versus real living costs, particularly in housing, which is becoming increasingly unaffordable. The conversation shifts to generational fairness, debating UBI and other policies to support younger people struggling with housing and debt. They also explore Bitcoin's role in finance, highlighting new frameworks for attracting investment through innovative strategies.
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Rate Cuts Vs. Economic Weakness
- Rate cuts tend to be bullish for risk assets, but weaker economic data can mute that effect.
- Markets are balancing rate-cut optimism against recession and sticky inflation risks.
Soft Yield-Curve Control Emerging
- A proposal to "moderate long-term interest rates" signals a move toward soft yield-curve control.
- That would protect Treasury market functioning and implicitly ease US government borrowing costs.
CPI Numbers Are Less Reliable
- CPI accuracy is worsening because a growing share of prices are imputed rather than observed.
- Headline CPI understates many lived costs, so official inflation feels disconnected from reality.