EMERGENCY POD: Huawei's Breakthrough, the Technical, Industrial and Strategic Implications
Sep 13, 2023
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Doug O'Laughlin, a semiconductor analyst from Fabricated Knowledge, and Dylan Patel, also an analyst at SemiAnalysis, dive into Huawei's groundbreaking Kirin 9000s chip. They discuss its significance as a testament to Chinese technological prowess and the inadequacies of current export controls. The guests predict that Chinese AI chips will rival top-tier models like NVIDIA's A100 soon. They also examine U.S. strategies to counter China's semiconductor advancements and the implications of global supply chains on competition.
The Kirin 9000 chip showcases Huawei's design capabilities and resilience despite US sanctions.
China's semiconductor industry, exemplified by SMIC, is rapidly progressing and could impact the global supply chain and market share of major companies.
To effectively curtail China's advancement in the semiconductor industry, comprehensive export restrictions targeting crucial components and equipment are essential.
Deep dives
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Impressive Breakthrough for Huawei's Kirin 9000 Chip
The Kirin 9000 chip by Huawei is a significant breakthrough, featuring a custom CPU, GPU, and 5G modem. It utilizes a 7-nanometer process technology and showcases Huawei's design capabilities and resilience despite US sanctions.
China's Growing Semiconductor Industry
China's semiconductor industry, exemplified by SMIC, is rapidly progressing. SMIC's capacity and capabilities are poised to compete with leading global players, potentially impacting the global supply chain and market share of major companies.
Lagging Edge Semiconductor Manufacturing in China
China's lagging edge semiconductor manufacturing, exemplified by BYD, is seeing rapid growth and integration. The focus on low-cost electric vehicles and being a vertically integrated IDM presents significant challenges for Western car manufacturers.
The importance of effective sanctions on China's rising industry
Policymakers need to decide whether to give up on current goals or enforce effective sanctions on China's emerging industry. The intention and policy goal of China is to insource every product, evident in initiatives like 'Made in China 2020' and 'Made in China 2025'. Ineffective sanctions have only slightly accelerated their progress. The policymakers must determine if they want to facilitate a rising Chinese industry or impose comprehensive measures to prevent China from achieving its goals.
The need to consider multiple factors beyond lithography in export controls
Focusing solely on limiting lithography tools would not be enough to impede China's progress in the semiconductor industry. Advanced packaging, hybrid bonding, backside power delivery, and optics are areas where China can excel. To effectively curtail China's advancement, export restrictions must be comprehensive and target various crucial components and equipment. A multifaceted approach that considers the entire ecosystem and limits multiple aspects simultaneously would be essential to halt China's progress.
Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis. We get into:
How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime
Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years
What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem
How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space
Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic
And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise
