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Eurodollar University

India is MASSIVELY Shorting The Dollar (Here’s What You Need To Know)

Dec 1, 2024
India is facing a currency crisis as the Reserve Bank goes massively short on the US dollar to stabilize the sinking rupee. This risky strategy could lead to significant losses while exacerbating currency downturns. The discussion also touches on the country's economic slowdown, with GDP growth slipping to 5.4% amidst global challenges. Factors like falling wages and weak consumer spending are putting pressure on the economy, shaking the urban middle class. Overall, the intricate dance of currency management and economic realities paints a troubling picture.
17:51

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Quick takeaways

  • India's Reserve Bank has taken a significant $60 billion short position against the U.S. dollar in the NDF market to counteract the rupee's decline.
  • Economic indicators show India's GDP growth has slowed to 5.4%, raising concerns about sustainability amid rising global pressures and domestic vulnerabilities.

Deep dives

India's Growing Dollar Short Position

India's central bank has undertaken a significant short position against the U.S. dollar, amounting to approximately $60 billion in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. This reflects a major shift from the Reserve Bank of India's previous approach, which focused more on managing local currency volatility. The large scale of these short positions suggests that the bank is responding to global economic pressure while trying to dissuade speculators from betting against the rupee. While RBI officials claim they are working to stabilize the market, the continuous decline of the rupee suggests that these efforts may not be having the desired effect.

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