Rebalancing Portfolios as Risk Premiums Drop

6 snips

Dec 22, 2025

The discussion dives into the challenges faced by traditional investment strategies, particularly the classic 60/40 portfolio. Recent market rallies and impressive fixed income returns prompt a reevaluation of future expectations. Projected long-term returns for various equity markets range from 4% to 8%, while U.S. Treasuries are forecasted to yield around 5%. The conversation highlights the compression of risk premiums and its impact on portfolio efficiency, while cautioning about potential shifts due to AI influencing stock-bond correlations.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Projected Long-Run Returns Differ By Region

Serena Tang projects global equities to return nearly 7% annually over the next decade while 10-year U.S. Treasuries may return ~5% per year.
Emerging markets lag at ~4% and Japanese government bonds near 2%, all above long-run averages.

INSIGHT

Risk Premiums Have Compressed

Equity and credit risk premiums have compressed, with the U.S. equity premium near 2% and emerging markets slightly negative.
Rich valuations, especially in the U.S., partly explain why investors receive less compensation for risk today.

INSIGHT

Higher Quality Companies Partly Justify Valuations

Despite high cyclically adjusted P/E ratios, S&P 500 companies are far more profitable and generate much more free cash flow than in 2000.
This improved quality partly justifies richer valuations today.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how current market conditions are challenging traditional investment strategies and what that means for asset allocation.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.

----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.

Today – does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense, and what can investors expect from long-term market returns?

It’s Monday, December 22nd at 10am in New York.

Global equities have rallied by more than 35 percent from lows made in April. And U.S. high grade fixed income has seen the last 12 months’ returns reach 5 percent, above the averages over the last 10 years. This raises important questions about future returns and how investors might want to adapt their portfolios.

Now, our work shows that long-run expected returns for equities are lower than in previous decades, while fixed income – think government bonds and corporate bonds – still offers relatively elevated returns, thanks to higher yields.

Let’s put some numbers to it. Over the next decade, we project global equities to deliver an annualized return of nearly 7 percent, with the S&P 500 just behind at 6.8 percent. European and Japanese equities stand out, potentially returning about 8 percent. Emerging markets, however, lag at just about 4 percent. On the bond side, we think U.S. Treasuries with a 10-year maturity will return nearly 5 percent per year, German Bunds nearly 4 [percent], and Japanese government bonds nearly 2 [percent]. They may sound low, but it’s all above their long-run averages.

But here’s where it gets interesting. The extra return you get for taking on risk – what we call the risk premium – has compressed across the board. In the U.S., the equity risk premium is just 2 percent. And for emerging markets, it’s actually negative at around -1 percent. In very plain terms, investors aren’t being paid as much for taking on risk as they used to be.

Now, why is this the case? It’s because valuations are rich, especially in the U.S. But we also need to put these valuations in context. Yes, the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is near the highest level since the dotcom bubble. But the quality of the S&P 500 has improved dramatically over the past few decades. Companies are more profitable, and free cash flow -- money left after expenses -- is almost three times higher than it was in 2000. So, while valuations are rich, there’s some justification for it.

The lower risk premiums for stocks and credits, regardless of whether we think they are justified or not, has very interesting read across for investors’ multi-asset portfolios. The efficient frontier – meaning the best possible return for any given level of portfolio risk – has shifted. It’s now flatter and lower than in previous years. So, it means taking on more risk in a portfolio right now won’t necessarily boost returns as much as before.

Now, let’s turn our attention to the classic 60/40 portfolio – the mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds that’s been a staple strategy for generations. After a tough 2022, this strategy has bounced back, delivering above-average returns for three years in a row. Looking ahead, though, we expect only around 6 percent annual returns for a 60/40 portfolio over the next decade versus around 9 percent average return historically. Importantly though, advances in AI could keep stocks and bonds moving more in sync than they used to be. If that happens, investors might benefit from increasing their equity allocation beyond the traditional 60/40 split.

Either way, it’s important to realize that the optimal mix of stocks and bonds is not static and should be revisited as market dynamics evolve.

In a world where risk assets feel expensive and the old rules don’t quite fit, it’s essential to understand how risk, return, and correlation work together. This will help you navigate the next decade. The 60/40 portfolio isn’t dead – and optimal multi-asset allocation weights are evolving. And so should you.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.