UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Macro thoughts
Aug 11, 2025
Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas at UBS, as he navigates the current economic landscape with insightful analysis. He delves into mixed macro data, including the latest inflation readings and their potential implications on investment strategies. Jason discusses the recent Federal Reserve personnel changes and what they mean for market sentiment. Additionally, he highlights the impact of tariffs on gold imports while maintaining a bullish outlook for the precious metal due to ongoing demand from central banks and investors.
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Markets Look Through Near‑Term Risks
- Jason Draho says investors price news relative to expectations rather than absolutes.
- They are looking through soft data expecting growth slowdown and Fed cuts.
Job Growth Below Trend Risks Stall Speed
- Jason Draho notes monthly job gains ran ~35,000, under the 75–90k needed to maintain unemployment.
- He warns persistently low hiring could tip the economy toward a mild recession.
Tariffs Could Push Core Inflation Higher
- Jason Draho warns tariff effects are still entering the pipeline and will raise core CPI.
- He says core CPI could reach about 3.5% by year‑end before fading.