Lead-Lag Live Data vs Reality: Jay Hatfield on Jobs Revisions, Fed Cuts, and Where Value Hides
Sep 4, 2025
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital, shares his expertise on the questionable accuracy of BLS jobs data and its impact on investment strategies. He discusses how bond markets are signaling potential Fed cuts and argues for focusing on small caps and REITs as we approach year-end. Hatfield also emphasizes the need for a modern approach to labor data and warns that tariffs may distract from more pressing Fed policy issues. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating a slowing economy and uncovering hidden investment opportunities.
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BLS Data Is Antiquated And Lagging
- The BLS uses outdated survey methods and lags modern data sources by months. Jay Hatfield argues the BLS should integrate real-time datasets like ADP, Zillow, and ApartmentList to improve accuracy.
Bond Rally Reflected Lower Terminal Fed Expectations
- The bond market reacted strongly because weak jobs data changed expected terminal Fed funds rates. Hatfield links the drop in the 10-year to markets pricing in more Fed cuts.
Earn Yield With Preferreds And High-Yield Bonds
- If you want income while awaiting clarity, consider preferreds and high-yield bonds that yield ~8–9%. Hatfield recommends PFFA and BNDS as ways to earn yield with limited downside while rates fall.