Lead-Lag Live

Michael A. Gayed, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, shares his keen market insights and macro analysis that often precede major trends. He delves into the fragility of the current market recovery, highlighting the alarming disconnect between credit spreads and small caps. Gayed identifies potential risks in diminishing gold as a safe haven asset and argues that market manipulation is unprecedented, influenced by political rhetoric. His candid thoughts on market signals and investment strategies provide a compelling look at today’s financial dynamics.

The financial landscape has dramatically shifted, leaving income-focused investors struggling to find reliable yield. Traditional bonds no longer serve as the dependable ballast they once were, forcing advisors and retirees to explore alternative paths to consistent income.Howard Chan, formerly of PIMCO and Goldman Sachs, shares how his firm Kurv Investments is addressing this challenge through volatility harvesting strategies that transform growth-oriented technology stocks into income-generating powerhouses. This approach solves a fundamental dilemma: no longer must investors choose between growth potential and current income – they can potentially have both.What makes these strategies particularly valuable today is the breakdown of traditional asset correlations. The negative relationship between stocks and bonds that underpinned the classic 60/40 portfolio has weakened significantly, with both assets sometimes declining simultaneously during market stress. Volatility itself has emerged as an effective portfolio diversifier with a -0.8 correlation to equity markets this year.Through covered call writing on high-volatility tech names, these strategies can generate substantial yields (7-14% annually) while maintaining some upside participation. The approach follows a four-step framework for navigating market turbulence: mitigating downside during corrections, generating income while awaiting clarity, repositioning for rebounds, and then capturing upside during risk-on periods.Particularly enlightening is Howard's warning about NAV erosion in high-yield ETFs – when funds promise distributions above what markets can sustainably deliver, they must return principal to maintain their stated yield, creating a slow death spiral for investor capital. This critical concept is often overlooked by yield-hungry retail investors.For those approaching or in retirement who rely on portfolio income rather than total return, these alternative income streams may provide the consistency and tax efficiency that traditional fixed income currently lacks. As Howard notes, with US debt growing at 7% while GDP grows at just 2-3%, challenging fiscal choices lie ahead – making thoughtful income strategies more essential than ever.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

What if everything you've been told about money and wealth preservation is fundamentally flawed? In this eye-opening conversation with Lynette Zhang, a financial expert with over 50 years of market experience, we explore why physical gold remains the ultimate safe haven during times of monetary uncertainty."If you don't hold it, you don't own it," Zhang states emphatically, challenging conventional financial wisdom. Drawing on her background as a banker and stockbroker who has studied currency life cycles since 1987, she reveals the predictable patterns that signal our current monetary system's final stages. With the US dollar having lost 97% of its purchasing power, Zhang argues we're witnessing the death throes of fiat currency—something central banks worldwide seem to acknowledge as they accumulate gold at historic rates.The conversation takes a fascinating turn when Zhang calculates gold's true fundamental value at over $40,000 per ounce—far above current market prices. This isn't wishful thinking but based on dividing global debt by all existing gold, revealing just how severely undervalued the metal remains despite recent price increases. Zhang explains how governments suppress gold prices through paper markets because "a rising gold price is an indication of a failing fiat currency."Perhaps most compelling is Zhang's framework for diversification. While many advisors consider stocks and bonds sufficient diversification, Zhang demonstrates why tangible assets like physical gold and silver are the only true portfolio diversifiers during a currency transition. As she puts it: "During transitions, wealth never disappears, it just shifts location."Whether you're deeply concerned about monetary policy or simply looking to protect your financial future, this conversation provides actionable insights on positioning yourself for what Zhang believes is an inevitable currency reset. Subscribe and share your thoughts on preparing for financial uncertainty in today's rapidly changing world.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Dive into the often misunderstood world of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) with Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital as he clarifies exactly what makes these unique investment vehicles tick. Far from simply being "pipeline stocks," MLPs represent a sophisticated investment opportunity combining advantageous tax structures with stable cash flows and attractive yields.Jay breaks down the fundamental economics driving pipeline companies, explaining why they remain remarkably resilient even during periods of energy price volatility. Unlike direct energy producers, these infrastructure businesses operate primarily through long-term contracts and acreage dedications, creating predictable revenue streams regardless of short-term commodity fluctuations. Currently yielding around 7% with 5% annual distribution growth, today's MLPs target double-digit total returns while maintaining conservative financial policies.The conversation highlights how natural gas infrastructure stands at the intersection of several major global trends. As electricity demand surges from AI development, electric vehicles, and broader electrification, natural gas remains essential for grid stability—something even renewable-heavy regions like Spain and Portugal have learned through experience. Meanwhile, policy shifts under the Trump administration supporting LNG exports create substantial growth runways for companies transporting America's abundant natural gas resources to global markets hungry for cleaner energy alternatives.Perhaps most compelling for investors is the portfolio diversification MLPs offer, showing only 60-70% correlation to broader markets while providing meaningful income. The industry's evolution over recent years has created stronger, more resilient companies with national operations, investment-grade balance sheets, and sustainable distribution policies. For retirement-focused investors especially, these characteristics make MLPs worth serious consideration as part of a balanced portfolio strategy.Ready to explore how MLPs might fit into your investment approach? Visit infracapfunds.com to learn more about AMZA and other specialized ETFs designed to capture opportunities in this dynamic sector.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Amidst headlines proclaiming economic doom from Trump's tariffs, a surprising reality emerges: Chinese exports to the United States represent a mere 2.3% of China's GDP. This revealing statistic underscores China's remarkable transformation from an export-driven economy to one powered by domestic consumption and services.Henry Greene, Investment Strategist at KraneShares, breaks down this economic evolution with remarkable clarity. China's exports to America have plummeted from over 25% of total exports in 2006-2010 to just 14% today, while their manufactured goods exports represent only about 11% of GDP. For investors concerned about Chinese internet companies, the news grows even more intriguing – less than 2% of revenues from KWeb portfolio companies (including Alibaba, PDD, Tencent, and Meituan) originate from American consumers. Only PDD Holdings, with its popular Temu app, faces meaningful exposure at roughly 15% of revenue.The conversation explores several misconceptions plaguing market narratives. Concerns about Chinese company delistings from U.S. exchanges largely rehash existing policies from the 2020 Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, rather than representing new threats. Similarly, trade tensions around Taiwan reflect long-standing political posturing rather than imminent geopolitical shifts. Meanwhile, Chinese internet valuations remain compelling at roughly 17% earnings multiples compared to 30% for U.S. tech counterparts.Looking forward, multiple growth catalysts remain intact regardless of trade negotiations. Artificial intelligence development continues at pace with companies like Alibaba introducing increasingly efficient models. Consumer confidence has room to recover from pandemic-era lows. Perhaps most promising, cloud computing penetration among Chinese businesses sits at just 50% – substantially below Western rates and echoing the internet adoption curve that powered earlier growth cycles.Discover how savvy investors are navigating this complex landscape using strategies like balanced onshore/offshore exposure, covered calls, buffer products, and Asian fixed income to capitalize on China's economic resilience while managing volatility. Subscribe to KraneShares.com or ChinaLastNight.com for ongoing market insights that challenge mainWith ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Financial literacy forms the bedrock of generational wealth preservation, yet remains strikingly absent from our educational system. This knowledge gap creates the perfect storm for the "shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations" phenomenon that plagues family fortunes—wealth created in one generation, enjoyed in the second, and squandered by the third.George Stefanou, with over 15 years of financial advising experience, tackles this pressing issue head-on. Drawing from his book "Two Comma Wealth," he reveals the critical conversations families must have about money and the principles that extend wealth beyond a single generation. The timing couldn't be more crucial, as we stand at the precipice of history's largest wealth transfer from Baby Boomers to their heirs.Stefanou unpacks the concept of "hitting your number"—that magical retirement figure that supposedly guarantees financial security—and why the traditional 4% withdrawal rule requires nuanced application. He offers a refreshing metaphor of investment "lanes" (from the emergency lane of cash reserves to the sports car lane of growth equities) that helps visualize proper diversification strategies needed to combat inflation while preserving capital.The challenges of working with high-net-worth individuals receive special attention, particularly how their business success can paradoxically hinder investment discipline. Men and women approach money differently too—men often rushing to action during market volatility while women process information before making decisions, frequently becoming better long-term investors as a result.Strategic tax and estate planning emerge as critical yet underappreciated aspects of wealth preservation. With potential changes to estate tax exemptions looming, Stefanou illuminates how proper asset location and distribution timing can save heirs significant money while honoring philanthropic intentions without "tipping the IRS" unnecessarily.What about AI in financial planning? While technology will enhance data analysis and pattern recognition, the human element—behavioral coaching, accountability, and personalized understanding—remains irreplaceable, especially during market turbulence.Subscribe now to explore how meaningful kitchen-table money conversations can transform financial education from a missing curriculum subject into your family's greatest inheritance.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The market is sending clear warning signals that shouldn't be ignored. Technical analysis expert Vincent Randazzo reveals how deteriorating market breadth—a critical measure of market health—suggests we've entered a bear market that could persist longer than most anticipate.Drawing on over two decades of experience in technical analysis, Randazzo explains that market breadth essentially represents liquidity: how much money is flowing into how many different companies. A healthy market shows broad participation across companies of all sizes, while an unhealthy one features concentration in fewer names. At February's market peak, only 53% of stocks in the Russell 3000 were trading above their 200-day moving averages despite major indices hitting all-time highs—a classic divergence pattern that has preceded major market tops throughout history.Small cap underperformance has been particularly telling, with the Russell 2000 effectively experiencing a "lost half-decade" already when accounting for inflation. This divergence between small caps and large caps represents one of the most significant warning signs in current market conditions and could be foreshadowing a potential "lost decade" for equities similar to 2000-2010.For investors accustomed to the "buy and hold" approach that has dominated the last 15 years, this environment demands a tactical, risk-aware strategy. The value of avoiding major drawdowns while still capturing upside becomes paramount for effective long-term compounding. Diversification needs to extend beyond asset classes to include different strategies with varying signals and time horizons.Whether you're managing your own investments or working with an advisor, understanding these technical signals could make the difference between protecting your capital and suffering significant losses as this bear market potentially unfolds. Visit viewright.ai to learn more about navigating these challenging market conditions with discipline and systematic risk management.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The investment landscape is changing dramatically, and Seth Cogswell of Running Oak believes most investors aren't prepared. "People have gotten away with investing without thinking for the last decade," he observes, pointing to fundamental shifts that could upend conventional portfolio strategies.At the heart of this change lies the potential reversal of globalization—a multi-decade trend that has kept corporate profit margins artificially inflated and supported unprecedented valuations in certain market segments. This shift creates both dangers and opportunities that demand a more thoughtful approach to portfolio construction.The conversation reveals a critical blind spot in how most investors structure their portfolios. Between large-cap dominated passive funds (where often just eight companies represent 60% of holdings) and small/mid-cap allocations sits an overlooked space with compelling characteristics. Mid-caps have outperformed large caps by 60 basis points annually over 33 years while maintaining lower valuations—creating what Seth describes as "the most attractive asymmetry within the US equity market."Seth makes a compelling case for disciplined investing focused on three core principles: maximizing earnings growth, avoiding companies that should go down (particularly those with unreasonable valuations), and mitigating drawdowns. This rules-based approach removes emotion from the investment process and has proven valuable through various market cycles.The discussion also explores how companies that have taken on significant debt primarily to repurchase shares may face difficulties if we enter a recession or if interest rates remain elevated. "You go back to the end of bull markets, that's where the most crowded, most popular trades drop 50% in a few months," Seth warns, highlighting why investors should reassess concentration risks in their portfolios.Whether you're concerned about potential market turbulence or simply looking to optimize your portfolio construction, this conversation offers valuable perspective on finding opportunities in overlooked market segments through disciplined, logical investment approaches that focus on sustainable growth and risk management.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Jay Hatfield, Chief Investment Officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, shines a light on market dynamics and investment strategies amidst volatility. He delves into the 'small cap tariff problem', exposing the technical factors behind small caps' underperformance. Hatfield challenges the notion that tariffs drive inflation, arguing they are one-time increases misunderstood by the Fed. He remains optimistic about market targets, suggesting a range of 5,000 to 6,000 for the S&P, and highlights the potential of undervalued funds in today’s economic landscape.