Lead-Lag Live

The investment world is filled with overconfidence. We obsessively track our wins while conveniently forgetting our losses, leading most investors—even professionals—to achieve prediction accuracy barely above 50%. This sobering reality forms the foundation of a fascinating conversation about why predicting markets is so difficult and how diversification offers protection against our behavioral biases.When we zoom in too closely on market movements, every fluctuation appears significant, triggering emotional responses that frequently sabotage our long-term success. The natural instincts that serve us well in everyday life often lead to counterproductive investment behaviors—buying high and selling low in response to fear and greed. A risk parity framework offers an antidote to these tendencies by emphasizing balanced exposure across assets that respond differently to various economic conditions.True diversification extends far beyond traditional 60/40 portfolios, which typically show 98% correlation with equity markets. Instead, it requires thoughtful allocation across stocks, bonds, commodities, and inflation-protected securities, weighted according to their volatility characteristics. Historical data supports this approach: equities have experienced "lost decades" in two of the past five decades, while alternative assets like gold have delivered comparable long-term returns but performed best during equity's worst periods. This complementary performance pattern demonstrates why diversification across uncorrelated assets provides the only "free lunch" in investing.Today's environment of heightened uncertainty and inflation volatility makes diversified approaches more valuable than ever. While many portfolios have become increasingly concentrated in U.S. equities after years of outperformance, the coming decade may reward those who embrace a more balanced approach to navigating the unknowable future. Remember: investing isn't about predicting tomorrow perfectly—it's about building resilient portfolios that can thrive across diverse economic scenarios.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Alternative investments are no longer just for institutional players and ultra-wealthy individuals. As Henry Yoshida reveals in this eye-opening conversation, everyday investors are increasingly allocating portions of their retirement accounts toward private investments outside the traditional stock and bond markets.Yoshida, a 23-year CFP veteran who built and sold both a financial advisory firm and a robo-advisor before founding Rocket Dollar, has created a platform that now manages $12 billion in alternative assets within tax-advantaged accounts. His company provides the infrastructure for investors to use their IRAs and 401(k)s to invest in private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency, and even unusual assets like cattle and racehorses.What makes this approach particularly interesting is the psychological benefit that comes with these investments. Unlike public markets where constant price fluctuations can trigger emotional selling, alternatives typically lack minute-by-minute valuations. This reduced transparency often helps investors maintain long-term positions without succumbing to short-term market noise – something Yoshida's customers have repeatedly confirmed.The platform primarily serves "mass affluent" retail investors with $250,000-$5 million in investable assets, who typically allocate 10-20% of their retirement funds to alternatives after experiencing significant gains in public markets. Rather than sourcing investments directly, Rocket Dollar solves the "demand side" by giving investors access to their retirement funds for private investments they've identified elsewhere.This democratization of alternative investments comes at a crucial time. As Yoshida points out, the traditional pathway for companies growing from small caps into large ones has fundamentally changed. Companies like OpenAI and SpaceX enter public markets at already massive valuations, meaning retail investors miss the substantial growth phase that historically occurred in public markets. Through alternative investments, individuals have potential access to these opportunities earlier in their lifecycle.Whether you're considering diversifying your retirement portfolio or simply curious about the expanding world of investment options, this conversation offers valuable insights into how the investment landscape is evolving beyond traditional asset classes.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The global investment landscape is shifting as international markets gain momentum despite lingering trade tensions. After years of US stock dominance creating stretched valuations, investors are increasingly looking abroad for more reasonably priced opportunities with similar growth potential.Phil Wool, Chief Research Officer at Rayliant, makes a compelling case for emerging markets as fertile ground for active management strategies. Markets like Taiwan, South Korea, and China feature 80-90% retail trading volume, creating inefficiencies that systematic approaches can exploit by targeting strong fundamentals and positive sentiment.One of the most overlooked aspects of emerging markets is their substantial technology exposure. South Korea's market comprises roughly 50% tech stocks yet trades at just 10x forward earnings—compared to the S&P 500's 23x. Taiwan's market is approximately 75% tech-focused but remains more affordable than US indices. These markets offer exposure to companies building critical components for data centers and AI infrastructure that often don't receive the same attention as the Magnificent Seven.Japan represents another intriguing opportunity with its broad market featuring limited analyst coverage beyond top companies. After decades of deflation and stagnation, Japan is experiencing an economic inflection point with normalizing monetary policy and significant corporate governance reforms unlocking previously trapped value.For investors concerned about international risk, Wool notes that much potential downside is already priced into these markets, unlike US equities where the recent recovery suggests investors may be underestimating lingering uncertainties. While emerging markets carry additional geopolitical and governance risks, these create opportunities for disciplined active managers who can identify well-governed companies.The evolution toward sophisticated multi-factor frameworks has transformed international investing. Rather than relying on traditional value or growth tilts alone, advanced systematic strategies now incorporate diverse signals including market-specific factors accounting for local regulations and institutions—particularly valuable when navigating diverse global markets with varying characteristics.Ready to explore international opportunities? Visit rayliant.com to learn more about their quantamental ETFs designed to capture behavioral alpha across global markets.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The market climbs relentlessly higher while uncertainty looms on every horizon. Is this sustainable? Seth Cogswell of Running Oak draws compelling parallels between today's investment landscape and the bubble of 2000, where a handful of companies drove index returns while numerous others languished in the shadows.We're living through what historians might call a "Fourth Turning" – a once-in-80-years societal transformation that coincides with major shifts in government, economy, and technology. Add to this the troubling possibility that social media and AI might actually be making us collectively less intelligent, and you have a recipe for market inefficiency that thoughtful investors can exploit.Cogswell reveals why mid-cap companies occupy a unique sweet spot in this environment – established enough to provide stability but small enough to deliver meaningful growth when they innovate. This segment has been largely overlooked as capital floods into the largest names, creating valuation imbalances that spell opportunity for disciplined investors.The Running Oak approach focuses on three timeless principles: maximizing earnings growth, maintaining strict valuation discipline, and mitigating downside risk. This rules-based strategy ensures consistency regardless of market conditions, making it an anchor holding for uncertain times.Perhaps most compelling is Cogswell's insight about "investing where others aren't." When everyone piles into the same popular stocks, prices rise and future returns diminish. Conversely, areas of the market receiving less attention often offer better valuations, higher upside potential, and lower downside risk – exactly the asymmetric opportunity sophisticated investors seek.As passive flows continue to concentrate in fewer names, the opportunity for disciplined, thoughtful investment approaches grows. Follow Seth Cogswell on LinkedIn and Twitter @SethCogswell or visit RunningOak.com to learn more about navigating these extraordinary market conditions.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

In this engaging discussion, Paul Baiocchi, Chief ETF Strategist at SS&C Alps Advisors, sheds light on the pivotal shift in investing strategies beyond the dominant S&P 500. He emphasizes the megatrend of electrification reshaping the economy, driven by AI data centers and EV adoption. Paul highlights the resurgence of international markets, trading at a discount, and the potential of small caps and REITs amid improving fundamentals. His insights challenge investors to rethink traditional approaches and explore new opportunities in a changing landscape.

In this discussion, Luke Oliver, a strategist at KraneShares, demystifies the carbon credit market as a groundbreaking alternative investment. He emphasizes its low correlation with stocks and its impressive potential returns, underscoring how government mandates create steady demand. The conversation highlights intriguing strategies for integrating carbon assets, like ETFs, into portfolios, aiming for smarter diversification. Luke also explores the impact of regulations and geopolitical events on the market, making a strong case for carbon investments as the future of portfolio construction.

Phillip Toews, founder of Toews Asset Management and author of "The Behavioral Portfolio," unveils the pitfalls of the traditional 60/40 investment strategy. He examines historical market failures, revealing how this approach could have led to severe losses during economic downturns. Toews highlights the concept of 'adaptive fixed income' and critiques current monetary policies, suggesting new pathways to protect wealth. He introduces 'hedged equity' strategies, promoting portfolios that prioritize investor psychology and long-term stability, while also addressing the dangers of 'corona bias' in financial decision-making.

In this discussion, Kai Wu, Founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, unveils the revolutionary shift towards intangible value investing. With a keen focus on how modern companies derive value from brand equity and intellectual property, he critiques traditional metrics that overlook these aspects. Wu emphasizes the need for updated valuation methods, leveraging AI and big data to assess unstructured sources like patents and social media. He also addresses the challenges investors face in valuing intangible assets and the emerging opportunities in today’s asset-light economy.

Rohit Goel, Partner at Breakout Capital and an expert in global macro trends, dives into the overlooked risks of U.S. fiscal deficits, arguing they could mislead investors into focusing solely on American markets. He highlights emerging opportunities in under-invested regions like Europe and Latin America, emphasizing the importance of country selection in these markets. Rohit also connects potential shifts in capital flows with economic reforms, revealing that successful investing in emerging markets hinges more on national policies than sector choices.