This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
How Iran’s plans fell apart
Jan 23, 2025
Gavin Esler welcomes Hagai M. Segal, a professor at NYU London and expert on geopolitical strategy, and Paul Salem, VP for international engagement at the Middle East Institute. They delve into the dramatic unraveling of Iran's regional influence, spotlighting its declining power and the internal strife fueled by public demands for democracy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, future interactions with Gulf states, and the potential for regime change as Tehran grapples with unprecedented challenges.
42:05
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Quick takeaways
- Iran has experienced significant regional weaknesses following the fall of Assad’s regime, complicating its proxy warfare strategy and alliances.
- Internal discontent and political fragmentation within Iran challenge its leadership’s ability to address both domestic needs and foreign ambitions effectively.
Deep dives
Iran's Regional Power Dynamics
Iran has historically been a significant regional power, using proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas to assert its influence, particularly against Israel. However, 2024 marked a turning point with major setbacks for Iran and its allies, highlighting vulnerabilities in its military strategy and geopolitical posture. The aftermath of events such as the Hamas attack on Israel showed that Iran's influence may not be as strong as previously thought, with proxies acting independently rather than as direct extensions of Tehran's agenda. This shift indicates that Iran’s traditional methods of maintaining deterrence through proxy warfare are evolving, as international responses become more coordinated against its aggressive actions.
