This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler How Iran’s plans fell apart
Jan 23, 2025
Gavin Esler welcomes Hagai M. Segal, a professor at NYU London and expert on geopolitical strategy, and Paul Salem, VP for international engagement at the Middle East Institute. They delve into the dramatic unraveling of Iran's regional influence, spotlighting its declining power and the internal strife fueled by public demands for democracy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, future interactions with Gulf states, and the potential for regime change as Tehran grapples with unprecedented challenges.
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Iran's Weakened Posture
- Iran's strategic posture in the Middle East has been significantly weakened in 2024.
- Their proxy network, designed to deter conflict, has proven ineffective, and their military capabilities are limited.
Syria's Collapse and Iran
- The fall of the Assad regime in Syria is a major blow to Iran.
- It creates a geographic separation between Iran and Hezbollah, hindering the movement of materials and personnel.
Russia-Iran Relations
- The relationship between Russia and Iran is transactional, not a true alliance.
- Russia primarily benefits from Iranian drones and circumvents Western infrastructure, while Iran receives limited support in return.