What Bitcoin Did Inflation, Liquidity, the Fed & Bitcoin | James Lavish
39 snips
Sep 15, 2025 
James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, shares insights on the financial landscape. He discusses how rampant debt and global liquidity trends are priming Bitcoin for a major surge. The conversation covers the Federal Reserve's dilemma between inflation and recession, the impact of institutional investments, and why Bitcoin stands as a hedge against traditional financial systems. Lavish argues for Bitcoin's role as neutral, permissionless money in a world gripped by economic uncertainty.
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Bitcoin Follows Global Liquidity
- Bitcoin tracks global liquidity closely and typically lags liquidity changes by ~10–12 weeks.
- Therefore expanding liquidity tends to lift Bitcoin while tightening drains it.
Use Fed Messaging To Gauge Liquidity
- Watch Fed messaging: Powell will likely cut 25 bps but remain data dependent and avoid committing to a series of cuts.
- Use Fed statements to gauge likely liquidity expansion and reposition risk assets accordingly.
Rising Delinquencies Reveal Consumer Strain
- Rising 90‑day credit card delinquencies (around 12.3%) and student loan delinquencies signal strain concentrated in lower demographics.
- This divergence masks weakness that could worsen if policy tightens or student loans resume collections.
